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CD Olmedo vs Deportivo Cuenca — Liga Pro 2018

CD Olmedo
CD Olmedo
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Deportivo Cuenca
Deportivo Cuenca
12/11/2020Liga ProLiga Pro · 2° Girone - 13Estadio Olímpico de Riobamba

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

CD Olmedo38%
×Draw27%
Deportivo Cuenca35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CD Olmedo
1.27
Deportivo Cuenca
1.22

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 45 home / 131 away

creates per match

CD Olmedo
1.04
Deportivo Cuenca
0.85

allows per match

CD Olmedo
1.58
Deportivo Cuenca
1.50

finishing

CD Olmedo+0.00on par
Deportivo Cuenca+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CD Olmedo ↓

Deportivo Cuenca →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

CD Olmedo or draw
65%
CD Olmedo or Deportivo Cuenca
73%
Draw or Deportivo Cuenca
62%

Winning margin

CD Olmedo wins by 2+
17%
Deportivo Cuenca wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

CD Olmedo 1+ goals
72%
CD Olmedo 2+ goals
36%
CD Olmedo 3+ goals
14%
Deportivo Cuenca 1+ goals
70%
Deportivo Cuenca 2+ goals
34%
Deportivo Cuenca 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

CD Olmedo (draw refunded)
52%
Deportivo Cuenca (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CD Olmedo at home — creates 1.04, concedes 1.58 · 45 matches

Deportivo Cuenca away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.50 · 131 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CD Olmedo attack 1.04 + Deportivo Cuenca defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.27

Deportivo Cuenca attack 0.85 + CD Olmedo defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

CD Olmedo scores more
38%
level
27%
Deportivo Cuenca scores more
35%

CD Olmedo at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "CD Olmedo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga Pro: CD Olmedo 1–1 Deportivo Cuenca

CD Olmedo and Deportivo Cuenca drew 1-1 in Liga Pro on December 11, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio Olímpico de Riobamba in Riobamba.