Deportivo Cuenca 3–1 9 de Octubre: Result & Stats

Deportivo Cuenca

FT

3 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

9 de Octubre

D. Dorregaray 86'

L. Chicaiza 38'

F. Mera 30'

M. Da Luz 67'

10/17/2021

Liga Pro · 2nd Round - 10Estadio Alejandro Serrano Aguilar Banco del Austro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Deportivo Cuenca50%

×Draw24%

9 de Octubre26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Deportivo CuencaExpected goals in this match9 de Octubre

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.69

1.14

Deportivo Cuenca

1.69

9 de Octubre

1.14

Deportivo Cuenca creates 48% more chances

Season form · 132 home / 30 away

1.54

creates per match

1.17

1.11

allows per match

1.83

creates per match

Deportivo Cuenca

1.54

9 de Octubre

1.17

allows per match

Deportivo Cuenca

1.11

9 de Octubre

1.83

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Deportivo Cuenca+0.00on par

9 de Octubre+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Cuenca ↓

9 de Octubre →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

54%46%3.5

31%69%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Deportivo Cuenca or draw

74%

Deportivo Cuenca or 9 de Octubre

76%

Draw or 9 de Octubre

50%

Winning margin

Deportivo Cuenca wins by 2+

27%

9 de Octubre wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Deportivo Cuenca 1+ goals

82%

Deportivo Cuenca 2+ goals

50%

Deportivo Cuenca 3+ goals

24%

9 de Octubre 1+ goals

68%

9 de Octubre 2+ goals

32%

9 de Octubre 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Cuenca (draw refunded)

66%

9 de Octubre (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Cuenca at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.11 · 132 matches

9 de Octubre away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.83 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Cuenca attack 1.54 + 9 de Octubre defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.69

9 de Octubre attack 1.17 + Deportivo Cuenca defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Deportivo Cuenca scores more

50%

level

24%

9 de Octubre scores more

26%

Deportivo Cuenca at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Deportivo Cuenca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

8'

27'

30'

38'

54'

58'

65'

67'

M. Da Luz↳ D. Cabezas

71'

Jean Pena

73'

C. Orejuela← C. Penilla

73'

M. Posligua← F. Jourdan

85'

J. Rodríguez← F. Mera

85'

W. Caicedo← J. Cazares

86'

D. Dorregaray↳ L. Chicaiza

Possession

Shots

Statistics

Deportivo9

Overview

40%Possession60%

7Total Shots8

5Corners7

19Fouls19

Shots

7Total Shots8

5On Target3

2Off Target5

Passing

40%Possession60%

Goalkeeping

2Saves2

Discipline

19Fouls19

2Yellow Cards4

0Red Cards0

7Offsides3