9 de Octubre 2–1 Deportivo Cuenca: Result & Stats

9 de Octubre

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Deportivo Cuenca

R. Jaramillo 14'

J. Fajardo 11'

D. Dorregaray 45'

5/1/2021

Liga Pro · 1st Round - 10Estadio Modelo Alberto Spencer Herrera

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

9 de Octubre46%

×Draw27%

Deportivo Cuenca27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

9 de OctubreExpected goals in this matchDeportivo Cuenca

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.40

0.99

9 de Octubre

1.40

Deportivo Cuenca

0.99

9 de Octubre creates 41% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 131 away

1.30

creates per match

0.85

1.13

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

9 de Octubre

1.30

Deportivo Cuenca

0.85

allows per match

9 de Octubre

1.13

Deportivo Cuenca

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

9 de Octubre+0.00on par

Deportivo Cuenca+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

9 de Octubre ↓

Deportivo Cuenca →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

9 de Octubre or draw

73%

9 de Octubre or Deportivo Cuenca

73%

Draw or Deportivo Cuenca

54%

Winning margin

9 de Octubre wins by 2+

22%

Deportivo Cuenca wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

9 de Octubre 1+ goals

75%

9 de Octubre 2+ goals

41%

9 de Octubre 3+ goals

17%

Deportivo Cuenca 1+ goals

63%

Deportivo Cuenca 2+ goals

26%

Deportivo Cuenca 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

9 de Octubre (draw refunded)

64%

Deportivo Cuenca (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

9 de Octubre at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.13 · 30 matches

Deportivo Cuenca away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.50 · 131 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

9 de Octubre attack 1.30 + Deportivo Cuenca defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.40

Deportivo Cuenca attack 0.85 + 9 de Octubre defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

9 de Octubre scores more

46%

level

27%

Deportivo Cuenca scores more

27%

9 de Octubre at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "9 de Octubre will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

11'

J. Fajardo↳ T. Valencia

14'

R. Jaramillo

45'

D. Dorregaray↳ L. Mancinelli

46'

A. Naula← L. Chicaiza

46'

M. Posligua← G. Nazareno

46'

J. Rodríguez← L. Arce

58'

Anderson Naula

60'

M. Lucas← T. Valencia

60'

65'

68'

70'

74'

W. Caicedo← R. Jaramillo

75'

Manuel Erasmo Lucas

77'

Diego Dorregaray

84'

F. Jourdan← J. Bolaños

84'

J. Pita← L. Mancinelli

88'

É. Cetré← J. Cazares

Possession

Shots

Statistics

9Deportivo

Overview

62%Possession38%

12Total Shots6

4Corners4

18Fouls17

Shots

12Total Shots6

7On Target4

5Off Target2

Passing

62%Possession38%

Goalkeeping

3Saves5

Discipline

18Fouls17

3Yellow Cards2

0Red Cards1

1Offsides5