Deportivo Coopsol 2–1 Deportiva Agropecuaria

Deportivo Coopsol

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Deportiva Agropecuaria

9/23/2024

Segunda División · Promotion Round - 9Estadio Municipal Facundo Ramírez Aguilar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Deportivo Coopsol49%

×Draw26%

Deportiva Agropecuaria24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Deportivo CoopsolExpected goals in this matchDeportiva Agropecuaria

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

0.97

Deportivo Coopsol

1.50

Deportiva Agropecuaria

0.97

Deportivo Coopsol creates 55% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 24 away

1.32

creates per match

0.92

1.02

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

Deportivo Coopsol

1.32

Deportiva Agropecuaria

0.92

allows per match

Deportivo Coopsol

1.02

Deportiva Agropecuaria

1.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Deportivo Coopsol+0.00on par

Deportiva Agropecuaria+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Coopsol ↓

Deportiva Agropecuaria →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Deportivo Coopsol or draw

76%

Deportivo Coopsol or Deportiva Agropecuaria

74%

Draw or Deportiva Agropecuaria

51%

Winning margin

Deportivo Coopsol wins by 2+

25%

Deportiva Agropecuaria wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Deportivo Coopsol 1+ goals

78%

Deportivo Coopsol 2+ goals

44%

Deportivo Coopsol 3+ goals

19%

Deportiva Agropecuaria 1+ goals

62%

Deportiva Agropecuaria 2+ goals

25%

Deportiva Agropecuaria 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Coopsol (draw refunded)

67%

Deportiva Agropecuaria (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Coopsol at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.02 · 90 matches

Deportiva Agropecuaria away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.67 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Coopsol attack 1.32 + Deportiva Agropecuaria defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.50

Deportiva Agropecuaria attack 0.92 + Deportivo Coopsol defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Deportivo Coopsol scores more

49%

level

26%

Deportiva Agropecuaria scores more

24%

Deportivo Coopsol at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Deportivo Coopsol will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff