Deportiva Agropecuaria 1–1 Deportivo Coopsol

Deportiva Agropecuaria

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Deportivo Coopsol

8/25/2024

Segunda División · Promotion Round - 4Estadio San Luis

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Deportiva Agropecuaria43%

×Draw26%

Deportivo Coopsol31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Deportiva AgropecuariaExpected goals in this matchDeportivo Coopsol

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

1.19

Deportiva Agropecuaria

1.46

Deportivo Coopsol

1.19

Deportiva Agropecuaria creates 23% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 91 away

1.29

creates per match

1.18

1.21

allows per match

1.63

creates per match

Deportiva Agropecuaria

1.29

Deportivo Coopsol

1.18

allows per match

Deportiva Agropecuaria

1.21

Deportivo Coopsol

1.63

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Deportiva Agropecuaria+0.00on par

Deportivo Coopsol+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportiva Agropecuaria ↓

Deportivo Coopsol →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Deportiva Agropecuaria or draw

69%

Deportiva Agropecuaria or Deportivo Coopsol

74%

Draw or Deportivo Coopsol

57%

Winning margin

Deportiva Agropecuaria wins by 2+

21%

Deportivo Coopsol wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Deportiva Agropecuaria 1+ goals

77%

Deportiva Agropecuaria 2+ goals

43%

Deportiva Agropecuaria 3+ goals

18%

Deportivo Coopsol 1+ goals

70%

Deportivo Coopsol 2+ goals

33%

Deportivo Coopsol 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Deportiva Agropecuaria (draw refunded)

58%

Deportivo Coopsol (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportiva Agropecuaria at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.21 · 24 matches

Deportivo Coopsol away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.63 · 91 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportiva Agropecuaria attack 1.29 + Deportivo Coopsol defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.46

Deportivo Coopsol attack 1.18 + Deportiva Agropecuaria defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Deportiva Agropecuaria scores more

43%

level

26%

Deportivo Coopsol scores more

31%

Deportiva Agropecuaria at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Deportiva Agropecuaria will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff