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Deportivo Coopsol vs Cesar Vallejo — Segunda División 2018

Deportivo Coopsol
Deportivo Coopsol
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Cesar Vallejo
Cesar Vallejo
7/21/2018Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 16Estadio Municipal Roberto Yáñez (San Vicente de Cañete)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Deportivo Coopsol38%
×Draw28%
Cesar Vallejo34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Deportivo Coopsol
1.21
Cesar Vallejo
1.13

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 90 home / 33 away

creates per match

Deportivo Coopsol
1.32
Cesar Vallejo
1.24

allows per match

Deportivo Coopsol
1.02
Cesar Vallejo
1.09

finishing

Deportivo Coopsol+0.00on par
Cesar Vallejo+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Coopsol ↓

Cesar Vallejo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Deportivo Coopsol or draw
66%
Deportivo Coopsol or Cesar Vallejo
72%
Draw or Cesar Vallejo
62%

Winning margin

Deportivo Coopsol wins by 2+
16%
Cesar Vallejo wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Deportivo Coopsol 1+ goals
70%
Deportivo Coopsol 2+ goals
34%
Deportivo Coopsol 3+ goals
12%
Cesar Vallejo 1+ goals
68%
Cesar Vallejo 2+ goals
31%
Cesar Vallejo 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Coopsol (draw refunded)
53%
Cesar Vallejo (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Coopsol at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.02 · 90 matches

Cesar Vallejo away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.09 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Coopsol attack 1.32 + Cesar Vallejo defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.21

Cesar Vallejo attack 1.24 + Deportivo Coopsol defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Deportivo Coopsol scores more
38%
level
28%
Cesar Vallejo scores more
34%

Deportivo Coopsol at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Deportivo Coopsol will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Deportivo Coopsol 0 – 1 Cesar Vallejo

Cesar Vallejo beat Deportivo Coopsol 1-0 in Segunda División on July 21, 2018.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Roberto Yáñez (San Vicente de Cañete).