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Deportivo Coopsol vs Bentín Tacna Heroica — Segunda División 2018

Deportivo Coopsol
Deportivo Coopsol
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Bentín Tacna Heroica
Bentín Tacna Heroica
4/13/2025Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 2Estadio Romulo Shaw Cisneros

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Deportivo Coopsol49%
×Draw25%
Bentín Tacna Heroica26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Deportivo Coopsol
1.56
Bentín Tacna Heroica
1.07

Deportivo Coopsol creates 46% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 15 away

creates per match

Deportivo Coopsol
1.32
Bentín Tacna Heroica
1.13

allows per match

Deportivo Coopsol
1.02
Bentín Tacna Heroica
1.80

finishing

Deportivo Coopsol+0.00on par
Bentín Tacna Heroica+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Coopsol ↓

Bentín Tacna Heroica →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Deportivo Coopsol or draw
74%
Deportivo Coopsol or Bentín Tacna Heroica
75%
Draw or Bentín Tacna Heroica
51%

Winning margin

Deportivo Coopsol wins by 2+
25%
Bentín Tacna Heroica wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Deportivo Coopsol 1+ goals
79%
Deportivo Coopsol 2+ goals
46%
Deportivo Coopsol 3+ goals
21%
Bentín Tacna Heroica 1+ goals
66%
Bentín Tacna Heroica 2+ goals
29%
Bentín Tacna Heroica 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Coopsol (draw refunded)
65%
Bentín Tacna Heroica (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Coopsol at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.02 · 90 matches

Bentín Tacna Heroica away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.80 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Coopsol attack 1.32 + Bentín Tacna Heroica defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.56

Bentín Tacna Heroica attack 1.13 + Deportivo Coopsol defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Deportivo Coopsol scores more
49%
level
25%
Bentín Tacna Heroica scores more
26%

Deportivo Coopsol at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Deportivo Coopsol will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Deportivo Coopsol vs Bentín Tacna Heroica

Bentín Tacna Heroica beat Deportivo Coopsol 2-0 in Segunda División on April 13, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Romulo Shaw Cisneros in Huaral.