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Bentín Tacna Heroica vs Deportivo Coopsol — Segunda División 2018

Bentín Tacna Heroica
Bentín Tacna Heroica
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Deportivo Coopsol
Deportivo Coopsol
6/1/2025Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 9Estadio Jorge Basadre

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Bentín Tacna Heroica53%
×Draw24%
Deportivo Coopsol23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bentín Tacna Heroica
1.71
Deportivo Coopsol
1.02

Bentín Tacna Heroica creates 68% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 91 away

creates per match

Bentín Tacna Heroica
1.80
Deportivo Coopsol
1.18

allows per match

Bentín Tacna Heroica
0.87
Deportivo Coopsol
1.63

finishing

Bentín Tacna Heroica+0.00on par
Deportivo Coopsol+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bentín Tacna Heroica ↓

Deportivo Coopsol →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
76%24%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Bentín Tacna Heroica or draw
77%
Bentín Tacna Heroica or Deportivo Coopsol
76%
Draw or Deportivo Coopsol
47%

Winning margin

Bentín Tacna Heroica wins by 2+
29%
Deportivo Coopsol wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Bentín Tacna Heroica 1+ goals
82%
Bentín Tacna Heroica 2+ goals
51%
Bentín Tacna Heroica 3+ goals
24%
Deportivo Coopsol 1+ goals
64%
Deportivo Coopsol 2+ goals
27%
Deportivo Coopsol 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Bentín Tacna Heroica (draw refunded)
70%
Deportivo Coopsol (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bentín Tacna Heroica at home — creates 1.80, concedes 0.87 · 15 matches

Deportivo Coopsol away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.63 · 91 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bentín Tacna Heroica attack 1.80 + Deportivo Coopsol defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.71

Deportivo Coopsol attack 1.18 + Bentín Tacna Heroica defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Bentín Tacna Heroica scores more
53%
level
24%
Deportivo Coopsol scores more
23%

Bentín Tacna Heroica at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Bentín Tacna Heroica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Segunda División: Bentín Tacna Heroica 2–0 Deportivo Coopsol

Bentín Tacna Heroica beat Deportivo Coopsol 2-0 in Segunda División on June 1, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Jorge Basadre in Tacna.