Deportivo Coopsol 2–3 Alianza Universidad

Deportivo Coopsol

FT

2 – 3

HT: 1 – 3

Alianza Universidad

8/16/2024

Segunda División · Promotion Round - 2Estadio Municipal Facundo Ramírez Aguilar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Deportivo Coopsol37%

×Draw26%

Alianza Universidad36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Deportivo CoopsolExpected goals in this matchAlianza Universidad

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

1.31

Deportivo Coopsol

1.33

Alianza Universidad

1.31

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 90 home / 43 away

1.32

creates per match

1.60

1.02

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Deportivo Coopsol

1.32

Alianza Universidad

1.60

allows per match

Deportivo Coopsol

1.02

Alianza Universidad

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Deportivo Coopsol+0.00on par

Alianza Universidad+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Coopsol ↓

Alianza Universidad →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Deportivo Coopsol or draw

64%

Deportivo Coopsol or Alianza Universidad

74%

Draw or Alianza Universidad

63%

Winning margin

Deportivo Coopsol wins by 2+

17%

Alianza Universidad wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Deportivo Coopsol 1+ goals

74%

Deportivo Coopsol 2+ goals

38%

Deportivo Coopsol 3+ goals

15%

Alianza Universidad 1+ goals

73%

Alianza Universidad 2+ goals

38%

Alianza Universidad 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Coopsol (draw refunded)

51%

Alianza Universidad (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Coopsol at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.02 · 90 matches

Alianza Universidad away — creates 1.60, concedes 1.33 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Coopsol attack 1.32 + Alianza Universidad defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.33

Alianza Universidad attack 1.60 + Deportivo Coopsol defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Deportivo Coopsol scores more

37%

level

26%

Alianza Universidad scores more

36%

Deportivo Coopsol at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Deportivo Coopsol will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff