Alianza Universidad 0–2 Deportivo Coopsol

Alianza Universidad

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Deportivo Coopsol

9/12/2024

Segunda División · Promotion Round - 7Estadio Heraclio Tapia León

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Alianza Universidad56%

×Draw23%

Deportivo Coopsol21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Alianza UniversidadExpected goals in this matchDeportivo Coopsol

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.86

1.06

Alianza Universidad

1.86

Deportivo Coopsol

1.06

Alianza Universidad creates 75% more chances

Season form · 43 home / 91 away

2.09

creates per match

1.18

0.95

allows per match

1.63

creates per match

Alianza Universidad

2.09

Deportivo Coopsol

1.18

allows per match

Alianza Universidad

0.95

Deportivo Coopsol

1.63

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Alianza Universidad+0.00on par

Deportivo Coopsol+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alianza Universidad ↓

Deportivo Coopsol →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Alianza Universidad or draw

79%

Alianza Universidad or Deportivo Coopsol

77%

Draw or Deportivo Coopsol

44%

Winning margin

Alianza Universidad wins by 2+

32%

Deportivo Coopsol wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Alianza Universidad 1+ goals

84%

Alianza Universidad 2+ goals

55%

Alianza Universidad 3+ goals

28%

Deportivo Coopsol 1+ goals

65%

Deportivo Coopsol 2+ goals

29%

Deportivo Coopsol 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Alianza Universidad (draw refunded)

72%

Deportivo Coopsol (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alianza Universidad at home — creates 2.09, concedes 0.95 · 43 matches

Deportivo Coopsol away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.63 · 91 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alianza Universidad attack 2.09 + Deportivo Coopsol defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.86

Deportivo Coopsol attack 1.18 + Alianza Universidad defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Alianza Universidad scores more

56%

level

23%

Deportivo Coopsol scores more

21%

Alianza Universidad at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Alianza Universidad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff