Deportivo Coopsol 4–0 Alfonso Ugarte Puno

Deportivo Coopsol

FT

4 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Alfonso Ugarte Puno

7/19/2023

Segunda División · Round 15Estadio Municipal Facundo Ramírez Aguilar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Deportivo Coopsol55%

×Draw24%

Alfonso Ugarte Puno21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Deportivo CoopsolExpected goals in this matchAlfonso Ugarte Puno

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.74

0.99

Deportivo Coopsol

1.74

Alfonso Ugarte Puno

0.99

Deportivo Coopsol creates 76% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 25 away

1.32

creates per match

0.96

1.02

allows per match

2.16

creates per match

Deportivo Coopsol

1.32

Alfonso Ugarte Puno

0.96

allows per match

Deportivo Coopsol

1.02

Alfonso Ugarte Puno

2.16

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Deportivo Coopsol+0.00on par

Alfonso Ugarte Puno+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Coopsol ↓

Alfonso Ugarte Puno →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

76%24%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Deportivo Coopsol or draw

79%

Deportivo Coopsol or Alfonso Ugarte Puno

76%

Draw or Alfonso Ugarte Puno

45%

Winning margin

Deportivo Coopsol wins by 2+

30%

Alfonso Ugarte Puno wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Deportivo Coopsol 1+ goals

82%

Deportivo Coopsol 2+ goals

52%

Deportivo Coopsol 3+ goals

25%

Alfonso Ugarte Puno 1+ goals

63%

Alfonso Ugarte Puno 2+ goals

26%

Alfonso Ugarte Puno 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Coopsol (draw refunded)

72%

Alfonso Ugarte Puno (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Coopsol at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.02 · 90 matches

Alfonso Ugarte Puno away — creates 0.96, concedes 2.16 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Coopsol attack 1.32 + Alfonso Ugarte Puno defence 2.16 → ÷2 → 1.74

Alfonso Ugarte Puno attack 0.96 + Deportivo Coopsol defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Deportivo Coopsol scores more

55%

level

24%

Alfonso Ugarte Puno scores more

21%

Deportivo Coopsol at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Deportivo Coopsol will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff