Alfonso Ugarte Puno 3–0 Deportivo Coopsol

Alfonso Ugarte Puno

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Deportivo Coopsol

4/23/2023

Segunda División · Round 2Estadio Universitario

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Alfonso Ugarte Puno53%

×Draw24%

Deportivo Coopsol23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Alfonso Ugarte PunoExpected goals in this matchDeportivo Coopsol

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.73

1.05

Alfonso Ugarte Puno

1.73

Deportivo Coopsol

1.05

Alfonso Ugarte Puno creates 65% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 91 away

1.84

creates per match

1.18

0.92

allows per match

1.63

creates per match

Alfonso Ugarte Puno

1.84

Deportivo Coopsol

1.18

allows per match

Alfonso Ugarte Puno

0.92

Deportivo Coopsol

1.63

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Alfonso Ugarte Puno+0.00on par

Deportivo Coopsol+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alfonso Ugarte Puno ↓

Deportivo Coopsol →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Alfonso Ugarte Puno or draw

77%

Alfonso Ugarte Puno or Deportivo Coopsol

76%

Draw or Deportivo Coopsol

47%

Winning margin

Alfonso Ugarte Puno wins by 2+

29%

Deportivo Coopsol wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Alfonso Ugarte Puno 1+ goals

82%

Alfonso Ugarte Puno 2+ goals

52%

Alfonso Ugarte Puno 3+ goals

25%

Deportivo Coopsol 1+ goals

65%

Deportivo Coopsol 2+ goals

28%

Deportivo Coopsol 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Alfonso Ugarte Puno (draw refunded)

70%

Deportivo Coopsol (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alfonso Ugarte Puno at home — creates 1.84, concedes 0.92 · 25 matches

Deportivo Coopsol away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.63 · 91 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alfonso Ugarte Puno attack 1.84 + Deportivo Coopsol defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.73

Deportivo Coopsol attack 1.18 + Alfonso Ugarte Puno defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Alfonso Ugarte Puno scores more

53%

level

24%

Deportivo Coopsol scores more

23%

Alfonso Ugarte Puno at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Alfonso Ugarte Puno will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff