Deportivo Cartagena 2–2 Barrio México

Deportivo Cartagena

FT

2 – 2

Barrio México

3/1/2020

Liga de Ascenso · Clausura - 10Estadio Guillermo Vargas Roldán

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Deportivo Cartagena45%

×Draw25%

Barrio México31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Deportivo CartagenaExpected goals in this matchBarrio México

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.59

1.27

Deportivo Cartagena

1.59

Barrio México

1.27

Deportivo Cartagena creates 25% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 43 away

1.81

creates per match

1.42

1.13

allows per match

1.37

creates per match

Deportivo Cartagena

1.81

Barrio México

1.42

allows per match

Deportivo Cartagena

1.13

Barrio México

1.37

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Deportivo Cartagena+0.00on par

Barrio México+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Cartagena ↓

Barrio México →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Deportivo Cartagena or draw

69%

Deportivo Cartagena or Barrio México

75%

Draw or Barrio México

55%

Winning margin

Deportivo Cartagena wins by 2+

23%

Barrio México wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Deportivo Cartagena 1+ goals

80%

Deportivo Cartagena 2+ goals

47%

Deportivo Cartagena 3+ goals

21%

Barrio México 1+ goals

72%

Barrio México 2+ goals

36%

Barrio México 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Cartagena (draw refunded)

59%

Barrio México (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Cartagena at home — creates 1.81, concedes 1.13 · 31 matches

Barrio México away — creates 1.42, concedes 1.37 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Cartagena attack 1.81 + Barrio México defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.59

Barrio México attack 1.42 + Deportivo Cartagena defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Deportivo Cartagena scores more

45%

level

25%

Barrio México scores more

31%

Deportivo Cartagena at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Deportivo Cartagena will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff