Barrio México 3–3 Deportivo Cartagena

Barrio México

FT

3 – 3

Deportivo Cartagena

1/12/2020

Liga de Ascenso · Clausura - 1Estadio Ernesto Rohrmoser Lahmann

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Barrio México56%

×Draw21%

Deportivo Cartagena23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Barrio MéxicoExpected goals in this matchDeportivo Cartagena

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.06

1.25

Barrio México

2.06

Deportivo Cartagena

1.25

Barrio México creates 65% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 32 away

2.07

creates per match

1.72

0.77

allows per match

2.06

creates per match

Barrio México

2.07

Deportivo Cartagena

1.72

allows per match

Barrio México

0.77

Deportivo Cartagena

2.06

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Barrio México+0.00on par

Deportivo Cartagena+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Barrio México ↓

Deportivo Cartagena →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–19%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

42%58%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Barrio México or draw

77%

Barrio México or Deportivo Cartagena

79%

Draw or Deportivo Cartagena

44%

Winning margin

Barrio México wins by 2+

33%

Deportivo Cartagena wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Barrio México 1+ goals

87%

Barrio México 2+ goals

61%

Barrio México 3+ goals

34%

Deportivo Cartagena 1+ goals

71%

Deportivo Cartagena 2+ goals

36%

Deportivo Cartagena 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Barrio México (draw refunded)

71%

Deportivo Cartagena (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Barrio México at home — creates 2.07, concedes 0.77 · 44 matches

Deportivo Cartagena away — creates 1.72, concedes 2.06 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Barrio México attack 2.07 + Deportivo Cartagena defence 2.06 → ÷2 → 2.06

Deportivo Cartagena attack 1.72 + Barrio México defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Barrio México scores more

56%

level

21%

Deportivo Cartagena scores more

23%

Barrio México at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Barrio México will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff