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Deportivo Camioneros vs San Martín Mendoza — Torneo Federal A 2018

Deportivo Camioneros
Deportivo Camioneros
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
San Martín Mendoza
San Martín Mendoza
3/23/2024Torneo Federal ATorneo Federal A · Group 2 - 1Estadio Hugo Moyano

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Deportivo Camioneros47%
×Draw29%
San Martín Mendoza24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Deportivo Camioneros
1.27
San Martín Mendoza
0.81

Deportivo Camioneros creates 57% more chances

Season form · 72 home / 51 away

creates per match

Deportivo Camioneros
1.10
San Martín Mendoza
0.73

allows per match

Deportivo Camioneros
0.90
San Martín Mendoza
1.43

finishing

Deportivo Camioneros+0.00on par
San Martín Mendoza+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Camioneros ↓

San Martín Mendoza →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
34%66%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Deportivo Camioneros or draw
76%
Deportivo Camioneros or San Martín Mendoza
71%
Draw or San Martín Mendoza
53%

Winning margin

Deportivo Camioneros wins by 2+
22%
San Martín Mendoza wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Deportivo Camioneros 1+ goals
72%
Deportivo Camioneros 2+ goals
36%
Deportivo Camioneros 3+ goals
14%
San Martín Mendoza 1+ goals
56%
San Martín Mendoza 2+ goals
19%
San Martín Mendoza 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Camioneros (draw refunded)
67%
San Martín Mendoza (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Camioneros at home — creates 1.10, concedes 0.90 · 72 matches

San Martín Mendoza away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.43 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Camioneros attack 1.10 + San Martín Mendoza defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.27

San Martín Mendoza attack 0.73 + Deportivo Camioneros defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Deportivo Camioneros scores more
47%
level
29%
San Martín Mendoza scores more
24%

Deportivo Camioneros at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Deportivo Camioneros will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Deportivo Camioneros vs San Martín Mendoza

San Martín Mendoza beat Deportivo Camioneros 1-0 in Torneo Federal A on March 23, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Hugo Moyano in Estéban Echeverría, Provincia de Buenos Aires.