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Deportivo Camioneros vs CDJU Gualeguaychu — Torneo Federal A 2018

Deportivo Camioneros
Deportivo Camioneros
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
CDJU Gualeguaychu
CDJU Gualeguaychu
9/8/2018Torneo Federal ATorneo Federal A · Zone 2 - 1Estadio Carlos V (Luján, Provincia de Buenos Aires)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Deportivo Camioneros50%
×Draw28%
CDJU Gualeguaychu22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Deportivo Camioneros
1.35
CDJU Gualeguaychu
0.80

Deportivo Camioneros creates 69% more chances

Season form · 72 home / 56 away

creates per match

Deportivo Camioneros
1.10
CDJU Gualeguaychu
0.71

allows per match

Deportivo Camioneros
0.90
CDJU Gualeguaychu
1.59

finishing

Deportivo Camioneros+0.00on par
CDJU Gualeguaychu+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Camioneros ↓

CDJU Gualeguaychu →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Deportivo Camioneros or draw
78%
Deportivo Camioneros or CDJU Gualeguaychu
72%
Draw or CDJU Gualeguaychu
50%

Winning margin

Deportivo Camioneros wins by 2+
24%
CDJU Gualeguaychu wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Deportivo Camioneros 1+ goals
74%
Deportivo Camioneros 2+ goals
39%
Deportivo Camioneros 3+ goals
15%
CDJU Gualeguaychu 1+ goals
55%
CDJU Gualeguaychu 2+ goals
19%
CDJU Gualeguaychu 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Camioneros (draw refunded)
69%
CDJU Gualeguaychu (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Camioneros at home — creates 1.10, concedes 0.90 · 72 matches

CDJU Gualeguaychu away — creates 0.71, concedes 1.59 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Camioneros attack 1.10 + CDJU Gualeguaychu defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.35

CDJU Gualeguaychu attack 0.71 + Deportivo Camioneros defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Deportivo Camioneros scores more
50%
level
28%
CDJU Gualeguaychu scores more
22%

Deportivo Camioneros at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Deportivo Camioneros will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Deportivo Camioneros vs CDJU Gualeguaychu

Deportivo Camioneros and CDJU Gualeguaychu drew 0-0 in Torneo Federal A on September 8, 2018.

The match was played at Estadio Carlos V (Luján, Provincia de Buenos Aires).