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CDJU Gualeguaychu vs Deportivo Camioneros — Torneo Federal A 2018

CDJU Gualeguaychu
CDJU Gualeguaychu
FT
2 – 3
HT: 1 – 0
Deportivo Camioneros
Deportivo Camioneros
10/28/2018Torneo Federal ATorneo Federal A · Zone 2 - 10Estadio Luis Delfino (Gualeguaychú, Provincia de Entre Ríos)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

CDJU Gualeguaychu44%
×Draw29%
Deportivo Camioneros27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CDJU Gualeguaychu
1.27
Deportivo Camioneros
0.93

CDJU Gualeguaychu creates 37% more chances

Season form · 54 home / 74 away

creates per match

CDJU Gualeguaychu
1.19
Deportivo Camioneros
0.77

allows per match

CDJU Gualeguaychu
1.09
Deportivo Camioneros
1.34

finishing

CDJU Gualeguaychu+0.00on par
Deportivo Camioneros+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CDJU Gualeguaychu ↓

Deportivo Camioneros →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–110%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

CDJU Gualeguaychu or draw
73%
CDJU Gualeguaychu or Deportivo Camioneros
71%
Draw or Deportivo Camioneros
56%

Winning margin

CDJU Gualeguaychu wins by 2+
20%
Deportivo Camioneros wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

CDJU Gualeguaychu 1+ goals
72%
CDJU Gualeguaychu 2+ goals
36%
CDJU Gualeguaychu 3+ goals
14%
Deportivo Camioneros 1+ goals
61%
Deportivo Camioneros 2+ goals
24%
Deportivo Camioneros 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

CDJU Gualeguaychu (draw refunded)
62%
Deportivo Camioneros (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CDJU Gualeguaychu at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.09 · 54 matches

Deportivo Camioneros away — creates 0.77, concedes 1.34 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CDJU Gualeguaychu attack 1.19 + Deportivo Camioneros defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.27

Deportivo Camioneros attack 0.77 + CDJU Gualeguaychu defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

CDJU Gualeguaychu scores more
44%
level
29%
Deportivo Camioneros scores more
27%

CDJU Gualeguaychu at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "CDJU Gualeguaychu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Torneo Federal A: CDJU Gualeguaychu 2–3 Deportivo Camioneros

Deportivo Camioneros beat CDJU Gualeguaychu 3-2 in Torneo Federal A on October 28, 2018.

The match was played at Estadio Luis Delfino (Gualeguaychú, Provincia de Entre Ríos).