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Deportivo Camioneros vs Atletico Parana — Torneo Federal A 2018

Deportivo Camioneros
Deportivo Camioneros
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Atletico Parana
Atletico Parana
10/14/2018Torneo Federal ATorneo Federal A · Zone 2 - 8Estadio Hugo Moyano (Estéban Echeverría, Provincia de Buenos Aires)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Deportivo Camioneros50%
×Draw28%
Atletico Parana22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Deportivo Camioneros
1.35
Atletico Parana
0.79

Deportivo Camioneros creates 71% more chances

Season form · 72 home / 28 away

creates per match

Deportivo Camioneros
1.10
Atletico Parana
0.68

allows per match

Deportivo Camioneros
0.90
Atletico Parana
1.61

finishing

Deportivo Camioneros+0.00on par
Atletico Parana+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Camioneros ↓

Atletico Parana →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Deportivo Camioneros or draw
78%
Deportivo Camioneros or Atletico Parana
72%
Draw or Atletico Parana
50%

Winning margin

Deportivo Camioneros wins by 2+
24%
Atletico Parana wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Deportivo Camioneros 1+ goals
74%
Deportivo Camioneros 2+ goals
39%
Deportivo Camioneros 3+ goals
15%
Atletico Parana 1+ goals
55%
Atletico Parana 2+ goals
19%
Atletico Parana 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Camioneros (draw refunded)
70%
Atletico Parana (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Camioneros at home — creates 1.10, concedes 0.90 · 72 matches

Atletico Parana away — creates 0.68, concedes 1.61 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Camioneros attack 1.10 + Atletico Parana defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.35

Atletico Parana attack 0.68 + Deportivo Camioneros defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Deportivo Camioneros scores more
50%
level
28%
Atletico Parana scores more
22%

Deportivo Camioneros at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Deportivo Camioneros will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Torneo Federal A: Deportivo Camioneros 0–0 Atletico Parana

Deportivo Camioneros and Atletico Parana drew 0-0 in Torneo Federal A on October 14, 2018.

The match was played at Estadio Hugo Moyano (Estéban Echeverría, Provincia de Buenos Aires).