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Atletico Parana vs Deportivo Camioneros — Torneo Federal A 2018

Atletico Parana
Atletico Parana
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Deportivo Camioneros
Deportivo Camioneros
12/3/2018Torneo Federal ATorneo Federal A · Zone 2 - 17Estadio Pedro Mutio (Paraná, Provincia de Entre Ríos)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Atletico Parana39%
×Draw29%
Deportivo Camioneros32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atletico Parana
1.17
Deportivo Camioneros
1.04

Atletico Parana creates 13% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 74 away

creates per match

Atletico Parana
1.00
Deportivo Camioneros
0.77

allows per match

Atletico Parana
1.31
Deportivo Camioneros
1.34

finishing

Atletico Parana+0.00on par
Deportivo Camioneros+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atletico Parana ↓

Deportivo Camioneros →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Atletico Parana or draw
68%
Atletico Parana or Deportivo Camioneros
71%
Draw or Deportivo Camioneros
61%

Winning margin

Atletico Parana wins by 2+
16%
Deportivo Camioneros wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Atletico Parana 1+ goals
69%
Atletico Parana 2+ goals
33%
Atletico Parana 3+ goals
11%
Deportivo Camioneros 1+ goals
65%
Deportivo Camioneros 2+ goals
28%
Deportivo Camioneros 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Atletico Parana (draw refunded)
55%
Deportivo Camioneros (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atletico Parana at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.31 · 29 matches

Deportivo Camioneros away — creates 0.77, concedes 1.34 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atletico Parana attack 1.00 + Deportivo Camioneros defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.17

Deportivo Camioneros attack 0.77 + Atletico Parana defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Atletico Parana scores more
39%
level
29%
Deportivo Camioneros scores more
32%

Atletico Parana at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Atletico Parana will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Atletico Parana vs Deportivo Camioneros

Atletico Parana and Deportivo Camioneros drew 1-1 in Torneo Federal A on December 3, 2018.

The match was played at Estadio Pedro Mutio (Paraná, Provincia de Entre Ríos).