Deportivo Cali W 1–1 Atlético Nacional W

Deportivo Cali W

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Atlético Nacional W

3/11/2023

Liga Femenina · Apertura - 6Estadio Deportivo Cali

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Deportivo Cali W49%

×Draw27%

Atlético Nacional W24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Deportivo Cali WExpected goals in this matchAtlético Nacional W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.44

0.92

Deportivo Cali W

1.44

Atlético Nacional W

0.92

Deportivo Cali W creates 57% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 56 away

1.93

creates per match

1.32

0.52

allows per match

0.96

creates per match

Deportivo Cali W

1.93

Atlético Nacional W

1.32

allows per match

Deportivo Cali W

0.52

Atlético Nacional W

0.96

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Deportivo Cali W+0.00on par

Atlético Nacional W+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Cali W ↓

Atlético Nacional W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Deportivo Cali W or draw

76%

Deportivo Cali W or Atlético Nacional W

73%

Draw or Atlético Nacional W

51%

Winning margin

Deportivo Cali W wins by 2+

24%

Atlético Nacional W wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Deportivo Cali W 1+ goals

76%

Deportivo Cali W 2+ goals

42%

Deportivo Cali W 3+ goals

18%

Atlético Nacional W 1+ goals

60%

Atlético Nacional W 2+ goals

23%

Atlético Nacional W 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Cali W (draw refunded)

67%

Atlético Nacional W (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Cali W at home — creates 1.93, concedes 0.52 · 60 matches

Atlético Nacional W away — creates 1.32, concedes 0.96 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Cali W attack 1.93 + Atlético Nacional W defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.44

Atlético Nacional W attack 1.32 + Deportivo Cali W defence 0.52 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Deportivo Cali W scores more

49%

level

27%

Atlético Nacional W scores more

24%

Deportivo Cali W at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Deportivo Cali W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff