Atlético Nacional W 1–2 Deportivo Cali W

Atlético Nacional W

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Deportivo Cali W

9/6/2025

Liga Femenina · Semi-finalsEstadio Atanasio Girardot

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Atlético Nacional W45%

×Draw26%

Deportivo Cali W29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Atlético Nacional WExpected goals in this matchDeportivo Cali W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

1.11

Atlético Nacional W

1.46

Deportivo Cali W

1.11

Atlético Nacional W creates 32% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 61 away

1.93

creates per match

1.52

0.70

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Atlético Nacional W

1.93

Deportivo Cali W

1.52

allows per match

Atlético Nacional W

0.70

Deportivo Cali W

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Atlético Nacional W+0.00on par

Deportivo Cali W+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlético Nacional W ↓

Deportivo Cali W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

47%53%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Atlético Nacional W or draw

71%

Atlético Nacional W or Deportivo Cali W

74%

Draw or Deportivo Cali W

55%

Winning margin

Atlético Nacional W wins by 2+

22%

Deportivo Cali W wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Atlético Nacional W 1+ goals

77%

Atlético Nacional W 2+ goals

43%

Atlético Nacional W 3+ goals

18%

Deportivo Cali W 1+ goals

67%

Deportivo Cali W 2+ goals

30%

Deportivo Cali W 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Atlético Nacional W (draw refunded)

61%

Deportivo Cali W (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlético Nacional W at home — creates 1.93, concedes 0.70 · 57 matches

Deportivo Cali W away — creates 1.52, concedes 1.00 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlético Nacional W attack 1.93 + Deportivo Cali W defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.46

Deportivo Cali W attack 1.52 + Atlético Nacional W defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Atlético Nacional W scores more

45%

level

26%

Deportivo Cali W scores more

29%

Atlético Nacional W at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Atlético Nacional W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff