Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Deportivo Cali vs Once Caldas — Primera A 2018

Deportivo Cali
Deportivo Cali
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Once Caldas
Once Caldas
3/2/2024Primera APrimera A · Apertura - 10Estadio Deportivo Cali

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 10+ matches

Deportivo Cali41%
×Draw30%
Once Caldas30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Deportivo Cali
1.16
Once Caldas
0.94

Deportivo Cali creates 23% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 10 away

creates per match

Deportivo Cali
1.08
Once Caldas
0.92

allows per match

Deportivo Cali
0.95
Once Caldas
1.23

finishing

Deportivo Cali-0.23scores less
Once Caldas+0.28scores more

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Cali ↓

Once Caldas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–112%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Deportivo Cali or draw
70%
Deportivo Cali or Once Caldas
70%
Draw or Once Caldas
59%

Winning margin

Deportivo Cali wins by 2+
17%
Once Caldas wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Deportivo Cali 1+ goals
69%
Deportivo Cali 2+ goals
32%
Deportivo Cali 3+ goals
11%
Once Caldas 1+ goals
61%
Once Caldas 2+ goals
24%
Once Caldas 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Cali (draw refunded)
58%
Once Caldas (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Cali at home — creates 1.08, concedes 0.95 · 13 matches

Once Caldas away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.23 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Cali attack 1.08 + Once Caldas defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.16

Once Caldas attack 0.92 + Deportivo Cali defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Deportivo Cali scores more
41%
level
30%
Once Caldas scores more
30%

Deportivo Cali at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Deportivo Cali will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera A: Deportivo Cali 0–1 Once Caldas

Once Caldas beat Deportivo Cali 1-0 in Primera A on March 2, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Deportivo Cali in Palmira.