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Deportivo Cali vs Junior — Primera A 2025

Deportivo Cali
Deportivo Cali
Preview
01:00
Junior
Junior
10/19/2026Primera APrimera A · Clausura - 15Estadio Deportivo Cali
Big match
44%
Deportivo Cali
model favours
44%28%28%

Junior score first in only 12% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
58%
under 2.5 goals
47%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Deportivo Cali44%
×Draw28%
Junior28%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Deportivo Cali
1.34
Junior
1.02

Deportivo Cali creates 31% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 5 away

creates per match

Deportivo Cali
1.06
Junior
1.01

allows per match

Deportivo Cali
1.02
Junior
1.62

finishing

Deportivo Cali-0.26scores less
Junior+0.19scores more

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Cali ↓

Junior →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Deportivo Cali or draw
72%
Deportivo Cali or Junior
72%
Draw or Junior
56%

Winning margin

Deportivo Cali wins by 2+
20%
Junior wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Deportivo Cali 1+ goals
74%
Deportivo Cali 2+ goals
39%
Deportivo Cali 3+ goals
15%
Junior 1+ goals
64%
Junior 2+ goals
27%
Junior 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Cali (draw refunded)
61%
Junior (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Cali at home — creates 1.06, concedes 1.02 · 10 matches

Junior away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.62 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Cali attack 1.06 + Junior defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.34

Junior attack 1.01 + Deportivo Cali defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Deportivo Cali scores more
44%
level
28%
Junior scores more
28%

Deportivo Cali at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Deportivo Cali will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Deportivo Cali have won 4 in a row
  • Deportivo Cali score first in only 20% of matches
  • 80% of Deportivo Cali’s matches stay under 2.5 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Similar styles
Deportivo Cali
Balanced
Junior
Balanced
49%PossessionBiggest gap52%
78%Pass accuracy79%
11.9Shots12.1
1.03xG1.07
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
Deportivo CaliJunior

Head-to-head

5 previous meetings

1
Deportivo Cali
2
Draws
2
Junior
Avg goals: 1.6BTTS: 20%
2–10–20–00–30–0

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Cali
WWWWW
Junior
LWLDW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Deportivo Cali face Junior (Primera A)

Primera A returns with Deportivo Cali hosting Junior. Match starts October 19, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Deportivo Cali host Junior at Estadio Deportivo Cali.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.