Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Deportivo Cali vs Internacional de Bogota — Primera A 2018

Deportivo Cali
Deportivo Cali
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
Internacional de Bogota
Internacional de Bogota
9/26/2022Primera APrimera A · Clausura - 14Estadio Deportivo Cali

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 12+ matches

Deportivo Cali47%
×Draw28%
Internacional de Bogota25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Deportivo Cali
1.32
Internacional de Bogota
0.88

Deportivo Cali creates 50% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 12 away

creates per match

Deportivo Cali
1.08
Internacional de Bogota
0.81

allows per match

Deportivo Cali
0.95
Internacional de Bogota
1.56

finishing

Deportivo Cali-0.23scores less
Internacional de Bogota-0.06on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Cali ↓

Internacional de Bogota →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Deportivo Cali or draw
75%
Deportivo Cali or Internacional de Bogota
72%
Draw or Internacional de Bogota
53%

Winning margin

Deportivo Cali wins by 2+
22%
Internacional de Bogota wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Deportivo Cali 1+ goals
73%
Deportivo Cali 2+ goals
38%
Deportivo Cali 3+ goals
15%
Internacional de Bogota 1+ goals
59%
Internacional de Bogota 2+ goals
22%
Internacional de Bogota 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Cali (draw refunded)
65%
Internacional de Bogota (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Cali at home — creates 1.08, concedes 0.95 · 13 matches

Internacional de Bogota away — creates 0.81, concedes 1.56 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Cali attack 1.08 + Internacional de Bogota defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.32

Internacional de Bogota attack 0.81 + Deportivo Cali defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Deportivo Cali scores more
47%
level
28%
Internacional de Bogota scores more
25%

Deportivo Cali at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Deportivo Cali will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Deportivo Cali vs Internacional de Bogota

Internacional de Bogota beat Deportivo Cali 2-1 in Primera A on September 26, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Deportivo Cali in Palmira.