Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Deportivo Cali vs Deportes Tolima — Primera A 2025

Deportivo Cali
Deportivo Cali
Preview
20:30
Deportes Tolima
Deportes Tolima
11/8/2026Primera APrimera A · Clausura - 19Estadio Deportivo Cali
37%
Deportivo Cali
model favours
37%30%33%

Deportes Tolima score first in only 6% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
64%
under 2.5 goals
43%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

Deportivo Cali37%
×Draw30%
Deportes Tolima33%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Deportivo Cali
1.11
Deportes Tolima
1.02

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 41 home / 39 away

creates per match

Deportivo Cali
1.17
Deportes Tolima
1.15

allows per match

Deportivo Cali
0.90
Deportes Tolima
1.05

finishing

Deportivo Cali+0.00on par
Deportes Tolima+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Cali ↓

Deportes Tolima →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Deportivo Cali or draw
67%
Deportivo Cali or Deportes Tolima
70%
Draw or Deportes Tolima
63%

Winning margin

Deportivo Cali wins by 2+
15%
Deportes Tolima wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Deportivo Cali 1+ goals
67%
Deportivo Cali 2+ goals
30%
Deportivo Cali 3+ goals
10%
Deportes Tolima 1+ goals
64%
Deportes Tolima 2+ goals
27%
Deportes Tolima 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Cali (draw refunded)
53%
Deportes Tolima (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Cali at home — creates 1.17, concedes 0.90 · 41 matches

Deportes Tolima away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.05 · 39 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Cali attack 1.17 + Deportes Tolima defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.11

Deportes Tolima attack 1.15 + Deportivo Cali defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Deportivo Cali scores more
37%
level
30%
Deportes Tolima scores more
33%

Deportivo Cali at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Deportivo Cali will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Deportivo Cali have won 4 in a row
  • Deportivo Cali score first in only 20% of matches
  • 80% of Deportivo Cali’s matches stay under 2.5 goals
  • Both teams score in only 18% of Deportes Tolima’s matches
  • 77% of Deportes Tolima’s matches stay under 2.5 goals
  • Both teams scored in 3 of the last 3 meetings

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Similar styles
Deportivo Cali
Defensively solid
Deportes Tolima
Defensively solid
51%PossessionBiggest gap55%
79%Pass accuracy82%
12.2Shots12.4
1.01xG1.00
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
Deportivo CaliDeportes Tolima

Head-to-head

3 previous meetings

0
Deportivo Cali
2
Draws
1
Deportes Tolima
Avg goals: 2.3BTTS: 100%
1–11–21–1

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Cali
WWWWW
Tolima
DLLLW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Deportivo Cali host Deportes Tolima

November 8, 2026: Deportivo Cali take on Deportes Tolima in Primera A. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Deportivo Cali host Deportes Tolima at Estadio Deportivo Cali.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.