Deportes Tolima 1–1 Deportivo Cali: Result & Stats

Deportes Tolima

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Deportivo Cali

E. Valencia 12' (pen)

Titi 53' (pen)

5/3/2026

Primera A · Apertura - 19Estadio Manuel Murillo Toro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Deportes Tolima46%

×Draw29%

Deportivo Cali25%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Deportes TolimaExpected goals in this matchDeportivo Cali

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.24

0.83

Deportes Tolima

1.24

Deportivo Cali

0.83

Deportes Tolima creates 49% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 8 away

1.31

creates per match

1.06

0.60

allows per match

1.17

creates per match

Deportes Tolima

1.31

Deportivo Cali

1.06

allows per match

Deportes Tolima

0.60

Deportivo Cali

1.17

-0.45scores less than expected

finishing

+0.19scores more than expected

finishing

Deportes Tolima-0.45scores less

Deportivo Cali+0.19scores more

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportes Tolima ↓

Deportivo Cali →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

61%39%2.5

34%66%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Deportes Tolima or draw

75%

Deportes Tolima or Deportivo Cali

71%

Draw or Deportivo Cali

54%

Winning margin

Deportes Tolima wins by 2+

21%

Deportivo Cali wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Deportes Tolima 1+ goals

71%

Deportes Tolima 2+ goals

35%

Deportes Tolima 3+ goals

13%

Deportivo Cali 1+ goals

56%

Deportivo Cali 2+ goals

20%

Deportivo Cali 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Deportes Tolima (draw refunded)

65%

Deportivo Cali (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportes Tolima at home — creates 1.31, concedes 0.60 · 7 matches

Deportivo Cali away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.17 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportes Tolima attack 1.31 + Deportivo Cali defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.24

Deportivo Cali attack 1.06 + Deportes Tolima defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Deportes Tolima scores more

46%

level

29%

Deportivo Cali scores more

25%

Deportes Tolima at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Deportes Tolima will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8

E. Valencia

Deportes Tolima · M

8.2

Match Events

10'

Daniel PedrozoPenalty confirmed

12'

E. ValenciaPenalty

17'

21'

38'

38'

46'

A. Hurtado← F. Aguilar

49'

Shean Barbosa

53'

TitiPenalty

58'

E. Lopez← J. Hernandez

58'

B. Rovira← J. Nieto

58'

L. Sandoval← J. Valencia

61'

Luis Sandoval

62'

Matias Orozco

68'

G. Cuellar←

68'

D. Giraldo← R. Pajaro

68'

J. Montoya← J. Martinez

72'

S. Guzman← S. P. Barbosa Gomez

80'

Cristian Trujillo

82'

J. Galindo← M. Orozco

83'

Jean Galindo

90+6'

Jersson González

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

DeportesDeportivo

Overview

45%Possession55%

13Total Shots16

1.34Expected Goals (xG)1.57

5Corners3

9Fouls11

Shots

13Total Shots16

4On Target4

8Off Target9

1Blocked3

4Inside Box8

9Outside Box8

Passing

45%Possession55%

333Total Passes397

240Accurate Passes297

72%Pass Accuracy75%

Goalkeeping

4Saves3

0.73Goals Prevented0.73

Discipline

9Fouls11

5Yellow Cards3

1Red Cards0

0Offsides2

Primera A: Deportes Tolima 1–1 Deportivo Cali

Deportes Tolima and Deportivo Cali drew 1-1 in Primera A on May 3, 2026.

Goals: E. Valencia (12' pen), Titi (53' pen).

Deportivo Cali controlled possession (55%) and registered 16 shots to 13.

The match was played at Estadio Manuel Murillo Toro in Ibague.

Deportes Tolima vs Deportivo Cali — Primera A 2025

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Primera A: Deportes Tolima 1–1 Deportivo Cali