Deportivo Cali 1–1 Deportes Tolima: Result & Stats

Deportivo Cali

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Deportes Tolima

J. Barrera 40'

J. Gonzalez 69'

5/3/2025

Primera A · Apertura - 17Estadio Deportivo Cali

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 41+ matches

Deportivo Cali35%

×Draw29%

Deportes Tolima36%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Deportivo CaliExpected goals in this matchDeportes Tolima

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.08

1.10

Deportivo Cali

1.08

Deportes Tolima

1.10

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 47 home / 41 away

1.15

creates per match

1.20

1.00

allows per match

1.02

creates per match

Deportivo Cali

1.15

Deportes Tolima

1.20

allows per match

Deportivo Cali

1.00

Deportes Tolima

1.02

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Deportivo Cali+0.00on par

Deportes Tolima+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Cali ↓

Deportes Tolima →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–112%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–17%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Deportivo Cali or draw

64%

Deportivo Cali or Deportes Tolima

71%

Draw or Deportes Tolima

65%

Winning margin

Deportivo Cali wins by 2+

14%

Deportes Tolima wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Deportivo Cali 1+ goals

66%

Deportivo Cali 2+ goals

29%

Deportivo Cali 3+ goals

10%

Deportes Tolima 1+ goals

67%

Deportes Tolima 2+ goals

30%

Deportes Tolima 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Cali (draw refunded)

49%

Deportes Tolima (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Cali at home — creates 1.15, concedes 1.00 · 47 matches

Deportes Tolima away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.02 · 41 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Cali attack 1.15 + Deportes Tolima defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.08

Deportes Tolima attack 1.20 + Deportivo Cali defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Deportivo Cali scores more

35%

level

29%

Deportes Tolima scores more

36%

Deportes Tolima at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Deportes Tolima will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7

J. Barrera

Deportivo Cali · F

7.9

Match Events

36'

Guzmán Corujo

39'

Kevin Pérez

40'

J. Barrera↳ E. Rodriguez

45+2'

Emiliano RodriguezPenalty cancelled

55'

Javier Reina← F. Castillo

55'

J. Moreno← A. Estupinan

65'

J. Gonzalez← J. Quinones

69'

J. Gonzalez

82'

Samuel Velásquez

82'

J. Angulo← J. Colorado

83'

J. Cabal← F. Viafara

84'

V. Mejia← Y. Gordillo

86'

Jarlan Barrera

87'

F. Mosquera← K. Perez

88'

J. Quinones← J. Nieto

90+5'

Julián Quiñones

90+2'

L. Miranda← A. Castro

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

DeportivoDeportes

Overview

49%Possession51%

13Total Shots16

6Corners6

16Fouls8

Shots

13Total Shots16

4On Target7

6Off Target6

3Blocked3

9Inside Box10

4Outside Box6

Passing

49%Possession51%

377Total Passes398

321Accurate Passes323

85%Pass Accuracy81%

Goalkeeping

6Saves3

Discipline

16Fouls8

2Yellow Cards3

0Offsides1