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Deportivo Cali vs Deportes Tolima — Primera A 2018

Deportivo Cali
Deportivo Cali
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Deportes Tolima
Deportes Tolima
11/30/2023Primera APrimera A · Clausura - Quadrangular - 4Estadio Deportivo Cali

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 174+ matches

Deportivo Cali38%
×Draw29%
Deportes Tolima33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Deportivo Cali
1.14
Deportes Tolima
1.03

Deportivo Cali creates 11% more chances

Season form · 174 home / 196 away

creates per match

Deportivo Cali
1.26
Deportes Tolima
1.22

allows per match

Deportivo Cali
0.85
Deportes Tolima
1.01

finishing

Deportivo Cali+0.00on par
Deportes Tolima+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Cali ↓

Deportes Tolima →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Deportivo Cali or draw
67%
Deportivo Cali or Deportes Tolima
71%
Draw or Deportes Tolima
62%

Winning margin

Deportivo Cali wins by 2+
16%
Deportes Tolima wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Deportivo Cali 1+ goals
68%
Deportivo Cali 2+ goals
32%
Deportivo Cali 3+ goals
11%
Deportes Tolima 1+ goals
64%
Deportes Tolima 2+ goals
28%
Deportes Tolima 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Cali (draw refunded)
54%
Deportes Tolima (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Cali at home — creates 1.26, concedes 0.85 · 174 matches

Deportes Tolima away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.01 · 196 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Cali attack 1.26 + Deportes Tolima defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.14

Deportes Tolima attack 1.22 + Deportivo Cali defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Deportivo Cali scores more
38%
level
29%
Deportes Tolima scores more
33%

Deportivo Cali at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Deportivo Cali will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Deportivo Cali vs Deportes Tolima

Deportes Tolima beat Deportivo Cali 2-0 in Primera A on November 30, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Deportivo Cali in Palmira.