Deportivo Cali 4–0 Chico: Result & Stats

Deportivo Cali

FT

4 – 0

HT: 3 – 0

Chico

2/10/2024

Primera A · Apertura - 5Estadio Deportivo Cali

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Deportivo Cali55%

×Draw23%

Chico22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Deportivo CaliExpected goals in this matchChico

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.77

1.03

Deportivo Cali

1.77

Chico

1.03

Deportivo Cali creates 72% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 5 away

1.08

creates per match

1.11

0.95

allows per match

2.46

creates per match

Deportivo Cali

1.08

Chico

1.11

allows per match

Deportivo Cali

0.95

Chico

2.46

-0.23scores less than expected

finishing

-0.91scores less than expected

finishing

Deportivo Cali-0.23scores less

Chico-0.91scores less

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Cali ↓

Chico →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Deportivo Cali or draw

78%

Deportivo Cali or Chico

77%

Draw or Chico

45%

Winning margin

Deportivo Cali wins by 2+

31%

Chico wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Deportivo Cali 1+ goals

83%

Deportivo Cali 2+ goals

53%

Deportivo Cali 3+ goals

26%

Chico 1+ goals

64%

Chico 2+ goals

28%

Chico 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Cali (draw refunded)

71%

Chico (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Cali at home — creates 1.08, concedes 0.95 · 13 matches

Chico away — creates 1.11, concedes 2.46 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Cali attack 1.08 + Chico defence 2.46 → ÷2 → 1.77

Chico attack 1.11 + Deportivo Cali defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Deportivo Cali scores more

55%

level

23%

Chico scores more

22%

Deportivo Cali at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Deportivo Cali will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff