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Chico vs Deportivo Cali — Primera A 2025

Chico
Chico
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Deportivo Cali
Deportivo Cali
J. Herrera 44'
8/11/2024Primera APrimera A · Clausura - 5Estadio de La Independencia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Chico42%
×Draw30%
Deportivo Cali28%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chico
1.17
Deportivo Cali
0.89

Chico creates 31% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 44 away

creates per match

Chico
1.00
Deportivo Cali
0.98

allows per match

Chico
0.79
Deportivo Cali
1.34

finishing

Chico+0.00on par
Deportivo Cali+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chico ↓

Deportivo Cali →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–111%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Chico or draw
72%
Chico or Deportivo Cali
70%
Draw or Deportivo Cali
58%

Winning margin

Chico wins by 2+
18%
Deportivo Cali wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Chico 1+ goals
69%
Chico 2+ goals
33%
Chico 3+ goals
11%
Deportivo Cali 1+ goals
59%
Deportivo Cali 2+ goals
22%
Deportivo Cali 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Chico (draw refunded)
60%
Deportivo Cali (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chico at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.79 · 34 matches

Deportivo Cali away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.34 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chico attack 1.00 + Deportivo Cali defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.17

Deportivo Cali attack 0.98 + Chico defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Chico scores more
42%
level
30%
Deportivo Cali scores more
28%

Chico at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Chico will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

18
J. HerreraChicoChico · D
7.9

Match Events

12'
K. Londoño← C. Gaitán
18'
Fredy Montero
28'
Yeiler Mosquera
39'
Cristian Baquero
44'
J. Herrera↳ J. Pérez
46'
W. Cruz← C. Baquero
46'
J. Montoya← Y. Mosquera
63'
Á. Plata← A. Andrade
67'
J. Quiceno← J. Pimentel
71'
K. Osorio← R. Bustamante
71'
J. Barrera← A. Estupiñán
75'
Kevin Londoño
78'
G. Cabezas← J. Reina
84'
A. Chara← G. Balanta

Possession

53%Chico

Shots

11Chico

Pass accuracy

51%Chico

Statistics

ChicoDeportivo
Overview
53%Possession47%
11Total Shots9
5Corners2
14Fouls15
Shots
11Total Shots9
4On Target0
5Off Target6
2Blocked3
1Inside Box7
10Outside Box2
Passing
53%Possession47%
378Total Passes337
296Accurate Passes252
78%Pass Accuracy75%
Goalkeeping
0Saves3
Discipline
14Fouls15
3Yellow Cards1
0Offsides5

Match Recap: Chico vs Deportivo Cali

Chico beat Deportivo Cali 1-0 in Primera A on August 11, 2024.

Goals: J. Herrera (44').

Chico controlled possession (53%) and registered 11 shots to 9.

The match was played at Estadio de La Independencia in Tunja.