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Chico vs Deportivo Cali — Copa Colombia 2025

Chico
Chico
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Deportivo Cali
Deportivo Cali
A. Banguero 33'
6/14/2025Copa ColombiaCopa Colombia · 1st Round - 5Estadio La Independencia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Chico50%
×Draw27%
Deportivo Cali23%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chico
1.42
Deportivo Cali
0.88

Chico creates 61% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 6 away

creates per match

Chico
1.50
Deportivo Cali
1.50

allows per match

Chico
0.25
Deportivo Cali
1.33

finishing

Chico+0.00on par
Deportivo Cali+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chico ↓

Deportivo Cali →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Chico or draw
77%
Chico or Deportivo Cali
73%
Draw or Deportivo Cali
50%

Winning margin

Chico wins by 2+
24%
Deportivo Cali wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Chico 1+ goals
76%
Chico 2+ goals
41%
Chico 3+ goals
17%
Deportivo Cali 1+ goals
59%
Deportivo Cali 2+ goals
22%
Deportivo Cali 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Chico (draw refunded)
68%
Deportivo Cali (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chico at home — creates 1.50, concedes 0.25 · 4 matches

Deportivo Cali away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.33 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chico attack 1.50 + Deportivo Cali defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.42

Deportivo Cali attack 1.50 + Chico defence 0.25 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Chico scores more
50%
level
27%
Deportivo Cali scores more
23%

Chico at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Chico will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

33'
A. Banguero
Chico
Deportivo
Jhon Gomez
Manager: Jhon Gomez
Rafael Dudamel
Manager: Rafael Dudamel

Match Recap: Chico vs Deportivo Cali

Chico beat Deportivo Cali 1-0 in Copa Colombia on June 14, 2025.

Goals: A. Banguero (33').

The match was played at Estadio La Independencia in Tunja.