Deportivo Cali 1–0 Atletico Nacional

Deportivo Cali

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Atletico Nacional

A. Estupinan 2'

4/20/2025

Primera A · Apertura - 15Estadio Deportivo Cali

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Deportivo Cali39%

×Draw29%

Atletico Nacional32%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Deportivo CaliExpected goals in this matchAtletico Nacional

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.15

1.02

Deportivo Cali

1.15

Atletico Nacional

1.02

Deportivo Cali creates 13% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 9 away

1.17

creates per match

1.15

0.90

allows per match

1.13

creates per match

Deportivo Cali

1.17

Atletico Nacional

1.15

allows per match

Deportivo Cali

0.90

Atletico Nacional

1.13

-0.60scores less than expected

finishing

+0.29scores more than expected

finishing

Deportivo Cali-0.60scores less

Atletico Nacional+0.29scores more

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Cali ↓

Atletico Nacional →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–112%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Deportivo Cali or draw

68%

Deportivo Cali or Atletico Nacional

71%

Draw or Atletico Nacional

61%

Winning margin

Deportivo Cali wins by 2+

16%

Atletico Nacional wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Deportivo Cali 1+ goals

68%

Deportivo Cali 2+ goals

32%

Deportivo Cali 3+ goals

11%

Atletico Nacional 1+ goals

64%

Atletico Nacional 2+ goals

27%

Atletico Nacional 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Cali (draw refunded)

55%

Atletico Nacional (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Cali at home — creates 1.17, concedes 0.90 · 7 matches

Atletico Nacional away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.13 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Cali attack 1.17 + Atletico Nacional defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.15

Atletico Nacional attack 1.15 + Deportivo Cali defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Deportivo Cali scores more

39%

level

29%

Atletico Nacional scores more

32%

Deportivo Cali at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Deportivo Cali will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

16

G. Corujo

Deportivo Cali · D

7.6

Match Events

2'

18'

21'

27'

42'

46'

46'

46'

D. Asprilla← A. Sarmiento

54'

J. Cantillo← F. Castillo

75'

C. Graciano← A. Estupinan

75'

J. Castro← A. Roman

85'

J. C. Caldera Alvis← R. Bustamante

85'

Javier Reina← J. Barrera

85'

J. Angulo← J. Colorado

86'

Jorman Campuzano

90+1'

K. Parra Atehortua← M. Hinestroza

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

DeportivoAtletico

Overview

32%Possession68%

6Total Shots14

1Corners5

15Fouls15

Shots

6Total Shots14

3On Target1

2Off Target8

1Blocked5

2Inside Box8

4Outside Box6

Passing

32%Possession68%

247Total Passes502

177Accurate Passes436

72%Pass Accuracy87%

Goalkeeping

1Saves2

Discipline

15Fouls15

1Yellow Cards4

4Offsides1