Atletico Nacional 1–1 Deportivo Cali

Atletico Nacional

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Deportivo Cali

J. Castro 71'

A. Estupiñán 90'

10/10/2024

Primera A · Clausura - 7Estadio Atanasio Girardot

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Atletico Nacional55%

×Draw25%

Deportivo Cali20%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Atletico NacionalExpected goals in this matchDeportivo Cali

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.57

0.83

Atletico Nacional

1.57

Deportivo Cali

0.83

Atletico Nacional creates 89% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 7 away

2.01

creates per match

0.99

0.68

allows per match

1.14

creates per match

Atletico Nacional

2.01

Deportivo Cali

0.99

allows per match

Atletico Nacional

0.68

Deportivo Cali

1.14

+1.32scores more than expected

finishing

+0.30scores more than expected

finishing

Atletico Nacional+1.32scores more

Deportivo Cali+0.30scores more

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atletico Nacional ↓

Deportivo Cali →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Atletico Nacional or draw

80%

Atletico Nacional or Deportivo Cali

75%

Draw or Deportivo Cali

45%

Winning margin

Atletico Nacional wins by 2+

29%

Deportivo Cali wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Atletico Nacional 1+ goals

79%

Atletico Nacional 2+ goals

46%

Atletico Nacional 3+ goals

21%

Deportivo Cali 1+ goals

56%

Deportivo Cali 2+ goals

20%

Deportivo Cali 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Atletico Nacional (draw refunded)

73%

Deportivo Cali (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atletico Nacional at home — creates 2.01, concedes 0.68 · 9 matches

Deportivo Cali away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.14 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atletico Nacional attack 2.01 + Deportivo Cali defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.57

Deportivo Cali attack 0.99 + Atletico Nacional defence 0.68 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Atletico Nacional scores more

55%

level

25%

Deportivo Cali scores more

20%

Atletico Nacional at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Atletico Nacional will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8

E. Cardona

Atletico Nacional · M

8.2

Match Events

31'

J. Castro

38'

Y. A. Gomez Mosquera

39'

C. Colmán← F. Montero

59'

P. Ceppelini← K. Toscano

59'

A. Sarmiento← D. Asprilla

67'

A. Estupiñán← Á. Plata

68'

F. Ángel← G. Cabezas

71'

J. Castro

75'

S. Guzmán← S. García

83'

J. Zapata← M. Hinestroza

83'

K. Viveros← E. Cardona

83'

J. Cantillo← Y. Gómez

88'

90+3'

90+3'

90+5'

90'

A. Estupiñán↳ F. Viáfara

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AtleticoDeportivo

Overview

61%Possession39%

14Total Shots7

9Corners0

12Fouls13

Shots

14Total Shots7

4On Target2

7Off Target4

3Blocked1

5Inside Box5

9Outside Box2

Passing

61%Possession39%

429Total Passes278

357Accurate Passes200

83%Pass Accuracy72%

Goalkeeping

1Saves3

Discipline

12Fouls13

4Yellow Cards2

2Offsides8