Deportivo Cali 1–1 Atletico Nacional

Deportivo Cali

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Atletico Nacional

L. Sandoval 15'

E. Ramírez 78' (pen)

8/6/2023

Primera A · Clausura - 4Estadio Deportivo Cali

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 13+ matches

Deportivo Cali35%

×Draw30%

Atletico Nacional35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Deportivo CaliExpected goals in this matchAtletico Nacional

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.06

Deportivo Cali

1.06

Atletico Nacional

1.06

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 13 home / 18 away

1.08

creates per match

1.17

0.95

allows per match

1.04

creates per match

Deportivo Cali

1.08

Atletico Nacional

1.17

allows per match

Deportivo Cali

0.95

Atletico Nacional

1.04

-0.23scores less than expected

finishing

+0.16scores more than expected

finishing

Deportivo Cali-0.23scores less

Atletico Nacional+0.16scores more

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Cali ↓

Atletico Nacional →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–113%

0–27%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–17%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Deportivo Cali or draw

65%

Deportivo Cali or Atletico Nacional

70%

Draw or Atletico Nacional

65%

Winning margin

Deportivo Cali wins by 2+

14%

Atletico Nacional wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Deportivo Cali 1+ goals

65%

Deportivo Cali 2+ goals

29%

Deportivo Cali 3+ goals

9%

Atletico Nacional 1+ goals

65%

Atletico Nacional 2+ goals

29%

Atletico Nacional 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Cali (draw refunded)

50%

Atletico Nacional (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Cali at home — creates 1.08, concedes 0.95 · 13 matches

Atletico Nacional away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.04 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Cali attack 1.08 + Atletico Nacional defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.06

Atletico Nacional attack 1.17 + Deportivo Cali defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 35%?"

Deportivo Cali scores more

35%

level

30%

Atletico Nacional scores more

35%

Deportivo Cali at 35% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 35% does not mean "Deportivo Cali will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

J. Wallens

Deportivo Cali · G

7.9

Match Events

15'

L. Sandoval↳ J. Franco

26'

J. Arias← S. Mosquera

29'

Gustavo Ramírez

45'

Andrés Salazar

45+3'

Maximiliano CanteraPenalty cancelled

47'

Edwin Castro

57'

E. Camargo← G. Ramírez

63'

T. Gutiérrez← L. Sandoval

64'

J. Asprilla← Ó. Perea

64'

N. Deossa← J. Torres

67'

A. Gutiérrez← J. Franco

68'

N. Ospina← J. Vásquez

78'

Eric Ramírez

78'

E. RamírezPenalty

82'

Juan Felipe Aguirre

86'

A. Román← A. Salazar

86'

T. Ángel← B. Palacios

88'

Jhon Solis

90+1'

Teófilo Gutiérrez

90'

Andrés Román

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

DeportivoAtletico

Overview

36%Possession64%

8Total Shots24

4Corners10

13Fouls10

Shots

8Total Shots24

2On Target6

5Off Target11

1Blocked7

6Inside Box15

2Outside Box9

Passing

36%Possession64%

214Total Passes386

132Accurate Passes321

62%Pass Accuracy83%

Goalkeeping

5Saves1

Discipline

13Fouls10

2Yellow Cards5

1Red Cards0

3Offsides0