Deportivo Cali 3–3 Atletico Nacional

Deportivo Cali

FT

3 – 3

HT: 3 – 0

Atletico Nacional

Y. González 35'

G. Burdisso 16'

T. Gutiérrez 12' (pen)

D. Pabón 90' (pen), 77' (pen)

G. Moreno 73'

3/22/2022

Primera A · Apertura - 12Estadio Deportivo Cali

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 13+ matches

Deportivo Cali36%

×Draw30%

Atletico Nacional34%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Deportivo CaliExpected goals in this matchAtletico Nacional

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.09

1.05

Deportivo Cali

1.09

Atletico Nacional

1.05

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 13 home / 19 away

1.08

creates per match

1.15

0.95

allows per match

1.10

creates per match

Deportivo Cali

1.08

Atletico Nacional

1.15

allows per match

Deportivo Cali

0.95

Atletico Nacional

1.10

-0.23scores less than expected

finishing

+0.11scores more than expected

finishing

Deportivo Cali-0.23scores less

Atletico Nacional+0.11scores more

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Cali ↓

Atletico Nacional →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–112%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–17%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Deportivo Cali or draw

66%

Deportivo Cali or Atletico Nacional

70%

Draw or Atletico Nacional

64%

Winning margin

Deportivo Cali wins by 2+

14%

Atletico Nacional wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Deportivo Cali 1+ goals

66%

Deportivo Cali 2+ goals

30%

Deportivo Cali 3+ goals

10%

Atletico Nacional 1+ goals

65%

Atletico Nacional 2+ goals

28%

Atletico Nacional 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Cali (draw refunded)

51%

Atletico Nacional (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Cali at home — creates 1.08, concedes 0.95 · 13 matches

Atletico Nacional away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.10 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Cali attack 1.08 + Atletico Nacional defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.09

Atletico Nacional attack 1.15 + Deportivo Cali defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Deportivo Cali scores more

36%

level

30%

Atletico Nacional scores more

34%

Deportivo Cali at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Deportivo Cali will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8

D. Pabón

Atletico Nacional · M

8.7

Match Events

12'

T. GutiérrezPenalty

16'

G. Burdisso↳ T. Gutiérrez

26'

J. Barrera

27'

N. Palacio

35'

Y. González↳ T. Gutiérrez

46'

A. Andrade← J. Barrera

52'

R. Blanco

54'

G. Moreno← R. Blanco

73'

C. Mafla← Y. González

73'

G. Moreno↳ J. Cabal

75'

C. Mafla

77'

D. PabónPenalty

78'

A. Balanta← E. Camargo

78'

80'

83'

87'

87'

90'

D. PabónPenalty

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

DeportivoAtletico

Overview

46%Possession54%

12Total Shots16

2Corners12

12Fouls10

Shots

12Total Shots16

5On Target5

5Off Target5

2Blocked6

9Inside Box11

3Outside Box5

Passing

46%Possession54%

306Total Passes347

241Accurate Passes273

79%Pass Accuracy79%

Goalkeeping

2Saves2

Discipline

12Fouls10

4Yellow Cards4

1Offsides3