Deportivo Cali 2–2 Atletico Nacional

Deportivo Cali

FT

2 – 2

HT: 2 – 0

Atletico Nacional

K. Velasco 35'

A. Colorado 8'

G. Perea 85'

J. Alvez 73'

10/7/2021

Copa Colombia · Semi-finalsEstadio Deportivo Cali

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Deportivo Cali46%

×Draw26%

Atletico Nacional28%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Deportivo CaliExpected goals in this matchAtletico Nacional

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

1.12

Deportivo Cali

1.50

Atletico Nacional

1.12

Deportivo Cali creates 34% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 23 away

1.78

creates per match

1.30

0.94

allows per match

1.22

creates per match

Deportivo Cali

1.78

Atletico Nacional

1.30

allows per match

Deportivo Cali

0.94

Atletico Nacional

1.22

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Deportivo Cali+0.00on par

Atletico Nacional+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Cali ↓

Atletico Nacional →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Deportivo Cali or draw

72%

Deportivo Cali or Atletico Nacional

74%

Draw or Atletico Nacional

54%

Winning margin

Deportivo Cali wins by 2+

23%

Atletico Nacional wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Deportivo Cali 1+ goals

78%

Deportivo Cali 2+ goals

44%

Deportivo Cali 3+ goals

19%

Atletico Nacional 1+ goals

67%

Atletico Nacional 2+ goals

31%

Atletico Nacional 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Cali (draw refunded)

62%

Atletico Nacional (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Cali at home — creates 1.78, concedes 0.94 · 18 matches

Atletico Nacional away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.22 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Cali attack 1.78 + Atletico Nacional defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.50

Atletico Nacional attack 1.30 + Deportivo Cali defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Deportivo Cali scores more

46%

level

26%

Atletico Nacional scores more

28%

Deportivo Cali at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Deportivo Cali will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

8'

24'

27'

30'

32'

35'

46'

46'

51'

51'

53'

59'

61'

68'

68'

Y. Guzmán← A. Andrade

73'

J. Alvez

74'

J. Valencia← A. Colorado

78'

J. Fory← J. Alvez

80'

H. Preciado← Angelo Rodríguez

80'

M. Ortega← J. Vásquez

84'

85'

90+3'

90+3'

Deportivo

Atletico

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

⚽

▼

Colorado

▼

Luna

▼

Rodríguez

Manager: R. Dudamel

53'▲F. Torres←▼D. Luna

74'▲J. Valencia←▼A. Colorado

80'▲H. Preciado←▼Angelo Rodríguez

80'▲M. Ortega←▼J. Vásquez

Deportivo Cali substitutes

TorresValenciaPreciadoOrtegaAcevedoCalderaFranco

Manager: A. Restrepo

46'▲A. Castro←▼S. Gómez

61'▲J. Alvez←▼J. Duque

68'▲J. Barrera←▼D. Pabón

68'▲Y. Guzmán←▼A. Andrade

78'▲J. Fory←▼J. Alvez

Atletico Nacional substitutes

CastroAlvezBarreraGuzmánForyAgudeloAguilar

Copa Colombia: Deportivo Cali 2–2 Atletico Nacional

Deportivo Cali and Atletico Nacional drew 2-2 in Copa Colombia on October 7, 2021.

Goals: A. Colorado (8'), K. Velasco (35'), J. Alvez (73'), G. Perea (85').

The match was played at Estadio Deportivo Cali in Palmira.

Deportivo Cali vs Atletico Nacional — Copa Colombia 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Copa Colombia: Deportivo Cali 2–2 Atletico Nacional