Deportivo Cali 1–0 America de Cali: Result & Stats

Deportivo Cali

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

America de Cali

A. Hurtado 88'

4/25/2026

Primera A · Apertura - 18Estadio Deportivo Cali

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 41+ matches

Deportivo Cali41%

×Draw30%

America de Cali29%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Deportivo CaliExpected goals in this matchAmerica de Cali

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.15

0.91

Deportivo Cali

1.15

America de Cali

0.91

Deportivo Cali creates 26% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 41 away

1.18

creates per match

0.88

0.93

allows per match

1.12

creates per match

Deportivo Cali

1.18

America de Cali

0.88

allows per match

Deportivo Cali

0.93

America de Cali

1.12

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Deportivo Cali+0.00on par

America de Cali+0.00on par

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Cali ↓

America de Cali →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–112%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

61%39%2.5

34%66%3.5

15%85%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Deportivo Cali or draw

71%

Deportivo Cali or America de Cali

70%

Draw or America de Cali

59%

Winning margin

Deportivo Cali wins by 2+

17%

America de Cali wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Deportivo Cali 1+ goals

68%

Deportivo Cali 2+ goals

32%

Deportivo Cali 3+ goals

11%

America de Cali 1+ goals

60%

America de Cali 2+ goals

23%

America de Cali 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Cali (draw refunded)

59%

America de Cali (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Cali at home — creates 1.18, concedes 0.93 · 45 matches

America de Cali away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.12 · 41 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Cali attack 1.18 + America de Cali defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.15

America de Cali attack 0.88 + Deportivo Cali defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Deportivo Cali scores more

41%

level

30%

America de Cali scores more

29%

Deportivo Cali at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Deportivo Cali will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

21

J. Quinones

Deportivo Cali · D

7.7

Match Events

18'

Josen Escobar

31'

Jan LucumíGoal cancelled

46'

J. Murillo← T. Angel

59'

D. Borrero← J. Lucumi

60'

K. Angulo← A. Ramos

65'

A. Hurtado← E. Reynoso

74'

G. Cuellar← M. Orozco

74'

J. Martinez← J. Dinenno

81'

D. Giraldo← F. Viafara

81'

J. Montoya← R. Pajaro

88'

A. Hurtado↳ Titi

90+7'

Steven Rodríguez

90+6'

Luis Mina

90+1'

Kevin Angulo

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

DeportivoAmerica

Overview

51%Possession49%

14Total Shots4

1.13Expected Goals (xG)0.19

6Corners1

16Fouls13

Shots

14Total Shots4

4On Target2

7Off Target2

3Blocked0

9Inside Box3

5Outside Box1

Passing

51%Possession49%

381Total Passes384

313Accurate Passes319

82%Pass Accuracy83%

Goalkeeping

2Saves3

-0.80Goals Prevented-0.80

Discipline

16Fouls13

1Yellow Cards3

1Offsides1