Deportivo Cali 0–2 America de Cali: Result & Stats

Deportivo Cali

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

America de Cali

J. Escobar 62'

C. Barrios 27'

10/19/2025

Primera A · Clausura - 16Estadio Deportivo Cali

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Deportivo Cali41%

×Draw31%

America de Cali28%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Deportivo CaliExpected goals in this matchAmerica de Cali

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.11

0.85

Deportivo Cali

1.11

America de Cali

0.85

Deportivo Cali creates 31% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 40 away

1.08

creates per match

0.88

0.82

allows per match

1.15

creates per match

Deportivo Cali

1.08

America de Cali

0.88

allows per match

Deportivo Cali

0.82

America de Cali

1.15

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Deportivo Cali+0.00on par

America de Cali+0.00on par

Total goals

Under69
Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No62
Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Cali ↓

America de Cali →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–112%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

58%42%2.5

31%69%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Deportivo Cali or draw

72%

Deportivo Cali or America de Cali

69%

Draw or America de Cali

59%

Winning margin

Deportivo Cali wins by 2+

17%

America de Cali wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Deportivo Cali 1+ goals

67%

Deportivo Cali 2+ goals

30%

Deportivo Cali 3+ goals

10%

America de Cali 1+ goals

57%

America de Cali 2+ goals

21%

America de Cali 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Cali (draw refunded)

60%

America de Cali (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

25%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Cali at home — creates 1.08, concedes 0.82 · 38 matches

America de Cali away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.15 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Cali attack 1.08 + America de Cali defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.11

America de Cali attack 0.88 + Deportivo Cali defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Deportivo Cali scores more

41%

level

31%

America de Cali scores more

28%

Deportivo Cali at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Deportivo Cali will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7

C. Barrios

America de Cali · M

8.0

Match Events

13'

27'

29'

31'

45'

46'

Y. Gordillo← M. Orozco

46'

F. Mimbacas← J. Aponza

48'

J. Escobar

58'

J. Soto

62'

J. Escobar↳ J. Lucumi

64'

J. Montoya← A. Estupinan

64'

Luis Orejuela← F. Viafara

70'

O. Bertel

72'

D. Borrero← A. Roa

82'

J. Moreno← Y. Quintero

82'

T. Palacios← C. Barrios

82'

88'

90+1'

90+5'

90+1'

L. Paz← J. Lucumi

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

DeportivoAmerica

Overview

62%Possession38%

18Total Shots6

5Corners0

18Fouls6

Shots

18Total Shots6

3On Target3

13Off Target2

2Blocked1

13Inside Box2

5Outside Box4

Passing

62%Possession38%

378Total Passes244

299Accurate Passes171

79%Pass Accuracy70%

Goalkeeping

1Saves2

Discipline

18Fouls6

4Yellow Cards6

0Offsides3