Deportivo Cali 0–0 America de Cali: Result & Stats

Deportivo Cali

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

America de Cali

10/15/2023

Primera A · Clausura - 17Estadio Deportivo Cali

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 13+ matches

Deportivo Cali42%

×Draw30%

America de Cali27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Deportivo CaliExpected goals in this matchAmerica de Cali

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.16

0.87

Deportivo Cali

1.16

America de Cali

0.87

Deportivo Cali creates 33% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 14 away

1.08

creates per match

0.79

0.95

allows per match

1.24

creates per match

Deportivo Cali

1.08

America de Cali

0.79

allows per match

Deportivo Cali

0.95

America de Cali

1.24

-0.23scores less than expected

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Deportivo Cali-0.23scores less

America de Cali+0.00on par

Total goals

Under67
Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Cali ↓

America de Cali →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–111%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

60%40%2.5

33%67%3.5

15%85%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Deportivo Cali or draw

73%

Deportivo Cali or America de Cali

70%

Draw or America de Cali

58%

Winning margin

Deportivo Cali wins by 2+

18%

America de Cali wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Deportivo Cali 1+ goals

69%

Deportivo Cali 2+ goals

32%

Deportivo Cali 3+ goals

11%

America de Cali 1+ goals

58%

America de Cali 2+ goals

22%

America de Cali 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Cali (draw refunded)

61%

America de Cali (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Cali at home — creates 1.08, concedes 0.95 · 13 matches

America de Cali away — creates 0.79, concedes 1.24 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Cali attack 1.08 + America de Cali defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.16

America de Cali attack 0.79 + Deportivo Cali defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Deportivo Cali scores more

42%

level

30%

America de Cali scores more

27%

Deportivo Cali at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Deportivo Cali will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

20

O. Acosta

Deportivo Cali · D

7.5

Match Events

22'

Teófilo GutiérrezPenalty cancelled

36'

Kevin Salazar

59'

Cristian Barrios

62'

V. Ibarbo← A. Ramos

62'

A. Sarmiento← M. Mina

62'

E. Cardona← D. Quintero

64'

Jefferson Díaz

68'

E. Camargo← K. Salazar

68'

J. Vásquez← T. Gutiérrez

71'

E. Velasco← L. Paz

83'

A. Parra← G. Ramírez

85'

F. Suárez← J. Portilla

87'

Jader Quinones

87'

John García

89'

Onel Acosta

89'

J. Córdoba← G. Cabezas

90+1'

Luis Sandoval

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

DeportivoAmerica

Overview

28%Possession72%

11Total Shots10

1Corners1

17Fouls7

Shots

11Total Shots10

2On Target2

6Off Target6

3Blocked2

6Inside Box4

5Outside Box6

Passing

28%Possession72%

178Total Passes466

103Accurate Passes370

58%Pass Accuracy79%

Goalkeeping

1Saves2

Discipline

17Fouls7

4Yellow Cards3

5Offsides1