Deportivo Cali 1–0 America de Cali: Result & Stats

Deportivo Cali

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

America de Cali

T. Gutiérrez 80' (pen)

10/9/2022

Primera A · Clausura - 16Estadio Deportivo Cali

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 13+ matches

Deportivo Cali42%

×Draw30%

America de Cali27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Deportivo CaliExpected goals in this matchAmerica de Cali

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.16

0.87

Deportivo Cali

1.16

America de Cali

0.87

Deportivo Cali creates 33% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 14 away

1.08

creates per match

0.79

0.95

allows per match

1.24

creates per match

Deportivo Cali

1.08

America de Cali

0.79

allows per match

Deportivo Cali

0.95

America de Cali

1.24

-0.23scores less than expected

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Deportivo Cali-0.23scores less

America de Cali+0.00on par

Total goals

Under67
Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Cali ↓

America de Cali →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–111%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

60%40%2.5

33%67%3.5

15%85%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Deportivo Cali or draw

73%

Deportivo Cali or America de Cali

70%

Draw or America de Cali

58%

Winning margin

Deportivo Cali wins by 2+

18%

America de Cali wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Deportivo Cali 1+ goals

69%

Deportivo Cali 2+ goals

32%

Deportivo Cali 3+ goals

11%

America de Cali 1+ goals

58%

America de Cali 2+ goals

22%

America de Cali 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Cali (draw refunded)

61%

America de Cali (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Cali at home — creates 1.08, concedes 0.95 · 13 matches

America de Cali away — creates 0.79, concedes 1.24 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Cali attack 1.08 + America de Cali defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.16

America de Cali attack 0.79 + Deportivo Cali defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Deportivo Cali scores more

42%

level

30%

America de Cali scores more

27%

Deportivo Cali at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Deportivo Cali will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

H. Acevedo

Deportivo Cali · G

7.9

Match Events

-5'

Alejandro Gabriel Quintana

46'

E. Camargo← K. Salazar

53'

59'

63'

66'

67'

69'

D. Lemos← Deinner Quiñónes

69'

D. Mosquera← G. Peña

73'

Camilo Portilla

73'

Camilo Portilla

74'

A. Vuletich← A. Rodríguez

75'

J. Ramos← Y. González

76'

Daniel Quiñones← J. Pérez

78'

Guillermo BurdissoPenalty awarded

79'

John García

79'

John García

80'

T. GutiérrezPenalty

90+3'

Agustín Vuletich

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

DeportivoAmerica

Overview

61%Possession39%

14Total Shots18

3Corners5

4Fouls14

Shots

14Total Shots18

6On Target6

7Off Target10

1Blocked2

4Inside Box7

10Outside Box11

Passing

61%Possession39%

419Total Passes262

325Accurate Passes182

78%Pass Accuracy69%

Goalkeeping

6Saves5

Discipline

4Fouls14

2Yellow Cards5

0Red Cards2

1Offsides2