Deportivo Cali 1–0 America de Cali: Result & Stats

Deportivo Cali

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

America de Cali

T. Gutiérrez 6' (pen)

9/16/2021

Copa Colombia · Quarter-finalsEstadio Deportivo Cali

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Deportivo Cali50%

×Draw26%

America de Cali24%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Deportivo CaliExpected goals in this matchAmerica de Cali

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

0.94

Deportivo Cali

1.48

America de Cali

0.94

Deportivo Cali creates 57% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 17 away

1.78

creates per match

0.94

allows per match

1.18

creates per match

Deportivo Cali

1.78

America de Cali

0.94

allows per match

Deportivo Cali

0.94

America de Cali

1.18

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Deportivo Cali+0.00on par

America de Cali+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Cali ↓

America de Cali →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Deportivo Cali or draw

76%

Deportivo Cali or America de Cali

74%

Draw or America de Cali

50%

Winning margin

Deportivo Cali wins by 2+

25%

America de Cali wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Deportivo Cali 1+ goals

77%

Deportivo Cali 2+ goals

43%

Deportivo Cali 3+ goals

19%

America de Cali 1+ goals

61%

America de Cali 2+ goals

24%

America de Cali 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Cali (draw refunded)

67%

America de Cali (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Cali at home — creates 1.78, concedes 0.94 · 18 matches

America de Cali away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.18 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Cali attack 1.78 + America de Cali defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.48

America de Cali attack 0.94 + Deportivo Cali defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Deportivo Cali scores more

50%

level

26%

America de Cali scores more

24%

Deportivo Cali at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Deportivo Cali will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

4'

J. Segura

6'

T. GutiérrezPenalty

26'

45+1'

45+1'

49'

50'

E. Batalla← L. Angulo

50'

R. Ureña← M. Gómez

55'

K. Velasco← F. Torres

60'

C. Robles← J. Vásquez

72'

J. Caldera← J. Franco

72'

R. Murillo← Angelo Rodríguez

72'

C. Sierra← L. Paz

76'

E. Batalla

Deportivo

America

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Manager: R. Dudamel

55'▲K. Velasco←▼F. Torres

60'▲C. Robles←▼J. Vásquez

72'▲J. Caldera←▼J. Franco

72'▲R. Murillo←▼Angelo Rodríguez

Deportivo Cali substitutes

VelascoRoblesCalderaMurilloRodríguezAcevedoTello

Manager: J. Osorio

50'▲E. Batalla←▼L. Angulo

50'▲R. Ureña←▼M. Gómez

72'▲C. Sierra←▼L. Paz

America de Cali substitutes

BatallaUreñaSierraGraterolPalaciosAndradeOrtiz

Copa Colombia: Deportivo Cali 1–0 America de Cali

Deportivo Cali beat America de Cali 1-0 in Copa Colombia on September 16, 2021.

Goals: T. Gutiérrez (6' pen).

The match was played at Estadio Deportivo Cali in Palmira.

Deportivo Cali vs America de Cali — Copa Colombia 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Copa Colombia: Deportivo Cali 1–0 America de Cali