Deportivo Cali vs Alianza Valledupar

Deportivo Cali

Preview

21:05

Alianza Valledupar

10/3/2026

Primera A · Clausura - 13Estadio Deportivo Cali

Big match

49%

Deportivo Cali

model favours

49%28%24%

Deportivo Cali have won 4 in a row

brightest fact of this match

1–0

likely score

61%

under 2.5 goals

44%

both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Deportivo Cali49%

×Draw28%

Alianza Valledupar24%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Deportivo CaliExpected goals in this matchAlianza Valledupar

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.38

0.88

Deportivo Cali

1.38

Alianza Valledupar

0.88

Deportivo Cali creates 57% more chances

Season form · 41 home / 33 away

1.17

creates per match

0.85

0.90

allows per match

1.58

creates per match

Deportivo Cali

1.17

Alianza Valledupar

0.85

allows per match

Deportivo Cali

0.90

Alianza Valledupar

1.58

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Deportivo Cali+0.00on par

Alianza Valledupar+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Cali ↓

Alianza Valledupar →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Deportivo Cali or draw

76%

Deportivo Cali or Alianza Valledupar

72%

Draw or Alianza Valledupar

51%

Winning margin

Deportivo Cali wins by 2+

23%

Alianza Valledupar wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Deportivo Cali 1+ goals

75%

Deportivo Cali 2+ goals

40%

Deportivo Cali 3+ goals

16%

Alianza Valledupar 1+ goals

59%

Alianza Valledupar 2+ goals

22%

Alianza Valledupar 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Cali (draw refunded)

67%

Alianza Valledupar (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Cali at home — creates 1.17, concedes 0.90 · 41 matches

Alianza Valledupar away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.58 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Cali attack 1.17 + Alianza Valledupar defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.38

Alianza Valledupar attack 0.85 + Deportivo Cali defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Deportivo Cali scores more

49%

level

28%

Alianza Valledupar scores more

24%

Deportivo Cali at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Deportivo Cali will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

Deportivo Cali score first in only 20% of matches
80% of Deportivo Cali’s matches stay under 2.5 goals
Alianza Valledupar win just 4% against the top half (vs 63% against the bottom)
Deportivo Cali sit 6, Alianza Valledupar 17 in the table
Their last 5 meetings averaged just 1.2 goals
Alianza Valledupar fall short of their xG (1.1 vs 1.5 expected)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Similar styles

Deportivo Cali

Defensively solid

Alianza Valledupar

Defensively solid

51%Possession46%

79%Pass accuracy77%

12.3Shots11.1

1.11xGBiggest gap1.46

Deportivo CaliAlianza Valledupar

Head-to-head

5 previous meetings

2

Deportivo Cali

0

Draws

3

Alianza Valledupar

Avg goals: 1.2BTTS: 0%

1–00–10–10–21–0

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form

Cali

WWWWW

Valledupar

WLWDD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff