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Deportivo Cali vs Alianza Valledupar — Primera A 2025

Deportivo Cali
Deportivo Cali
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Alianza Valledupar
Alianza Valledupar
F. Montero 28'
7/22/2024Primera APrimera A · Clausura - 2Estadio Deportivo Cali

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Deportivo Cali49%
×Draw28%
Alianza Valledupar24%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Deportivo Cali
1.38
Alianza Valledupar
0.88

Deportivo Cali creates 57% more chances

Season form · 41 home / 33 away

creates per match

Deportivo Cali
1.17
Alianza Valledupar
0.85

allows per match

Deportivo Cali
0.90
Alianza Valledupar
1.58

finishing

Deportivo Cali+0.00on par
Alianza Valledupar+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Cali ↓

Alianza Valledupar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Deportivo Cali or draw
76%
Deportivo Cali or Alianza Valledupar
72%
Draw or Alianza Valledupar
51%

Winning margin

Deportivo Cali wins by 2+
23%
Alianza Valledupar wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Deportivo Cali 1+ goals
75%
Deportivo Cali 2+ goals
40%
Deportivo Cali 3+ goals
16%
Alianza Valledupar 1+ goals
59%
Alianza Valledupar 2+ goals
22%
Alianza Valledupar 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Cali (draw refunded)
67%
Alianza Valledupar (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Cali at home — creates 1.17, concedes 0.90 · 41 matches

Alianza Valledupar away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.58 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Cali attack 1.17 + Alianza Valledupar defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.38

Alianza Valledupar attack 0.85 + Deportivo Cali defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Deportivo Cali scores more
49%
level
28%
Alianza Valledupar scores more
24%

Deportivo Cali at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Deportivo Cali will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

38
A. RodríguezDeportivo CaliDeportivo Cali · G
8.3

Match Events

-5'
Jarlan Barrera
28'
F. Montero↳ J. Barrera
32'
Fredy MonteroGoal confirmed
33'
Carlos Mosquera
56'
Jonathan Marulanda
58'
Edwin Torres
59'
M. Gil← E. Torres
59'
I. Camargo← M. Martínez
60'
J. Reina← J. Barrera
60'
A. Estupiñán← J. Córdoba
66'
Efraín Navarro
70'
J. Muñoz← E. Navarro
82'
F. Ángel← A. Andrade
83'
Andrey Estupiñán
83'
M. Torres← J. Castillo
83'
R. Colpa← R. Manjarrés
87'
K. Osorio← F. Montero
90+2'
Onel Acosta

Possession

41%Deportivo

Shots

12Deportivo

Pass accuracy

49%Deportivo

Statistics

DeportivoAlianza
Overview
41%Possession59%
12Total Shots17
2Corners6
20Fouls3
Shots
12Total Shots17
2On Target5
6Off Target8
4Blocked4
3Inside Box6
9Outside Box11
Passing
41%Possession59%
317Total Passes444
260Accurate Passes384
82%Pass Accuracy86%
Goalkeeping
5Saves1
Discipline
20Fouls3
4Yellow Cards3
1Offsides0

Primera A: Deportivo Cali 1–0 Alianza Valledupar

Deportivo Cali beat Alianza Valledupar 1-0 in Primera A on July 22, 2024.

Goals: F. Montero (28').

Alianza Valledupar controlled possession (59%) and registered 17 shots to 12.

The match was played at Estadio Deportivo Cali in Palmira.