Alianza Valledupar 2–0 Deportivo Cali

Alianza Valledupar

FT

2 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Deportivo Cali

F. Pardo 16', 8'

5/11/2025

Primera A · Apertura - 18Estadio Armando Maestre Pavajeau

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Alianza Valledupar45%

×Draw29%

Deportivo Cali26%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Alianza ValleduparExpected goals in this matchDeportivo Cali

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

0.89

Alianza Valledupar

1.25

Deportivo Cali

0.89

Alianza Valledupar creates 40% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 42 away

1.19

creates per match

0.90

0.87

allows per match

1.31

creates per match

Alianza Valledupar

1.19

Deportivo Cali

0.90

allows per match

Alianza Valledupar

0.87

Deportivo Cali

1.31

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Alianza Valledupar+0.00on par

Deportivo Cali+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alianza Valledupar ↓

Deportivo Cali →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–110%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Alianza Valledupar or draw

74%

Alianza Valledupar or Deportivo Cali

71%

Draw or Deportivo Cali

55%

Winning margin

Alianza Valledupar wins by 2+

20%

Deportivo Cali wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Alianza Valledupar 1+ goals

71%

Alianza Valledupar 2+ goals

36%

Alianza Valledupar 3+ goals

13%

Deportivo Cali 1+ goals

59%

Deportivo Cali 2+ goals

22%

Deportivo Cali 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Alianza Valledupar (draw refunded)

63%

Deportivo Cali (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alianza Valledupar at home — creates 1.19, concedes 0.87 · 31 matches

Deportivo Cali away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.31 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alianza Valledupar attack 1.19 + Deportivo Cali defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.25

Deportivo Cali attack 0.90 + Alianza Valledupar defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Alianza Valledupar scores more

45%

level

29%

Deportivo Cali scores more

26%

Alianza Valledupar at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Alianza Valledupar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

17

F. Pardo

Alianza Valledupar · F

8.5

Match Events

6'

Rafael Bustamante

8'

F. Pardo

16'

F. Pardo↳ C. Vergara

23'

J. Moreno← R. Bustamante

45+1'

Jair Castillo

45+5'

Jaider Moreno

48'

Fabián Viáfara

58'

J. Figueroa← R. Manjarres

58'

D. A. Mendoza Benitez← J. Castillo

58'

C. Graciano← F. Viafara

58'

D. A. Valencia Mosquera← J. Colorado

61'

64'

65'

69'

70'

70'

Javier Reina← E. Rodriguez

78'

W. Fernandez← J. Munoz

78'

M. Gil← C. Vergara

84'

J. S. Caracas Torres← F. Pardo

89'

Juan Angulo

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AlianzaDeportivo

Overview

36%Possession64%

9Total Shots12

4Corners6

16Fouls11

Shots

9Total Shots12

2On Target2

4Off Target6

3Blocked4

2Inside Box6

7Outside Box6

Passing

36%Possession64%

265Total Passes462

201Accurate Passes393

76%Pass Accuracy85%

Goalkeeping

2Saves0

Discipline

16Fouls11

4Yellow Cards5

0Offsides3

Match Recap: Alianza Valledupar vs Deportivo Cali

Alianza Valledupar beat Deportivo Cali 2-0 in Primera A on May 11, 2025.

Goals: F. Pardo (8', 16').

Deportivo Cali controlled possession (64%) and registered 12 shots to 9.

The match was played at Estadio Armando Maestre Pavajeau in Valledupar.

Alianza Valledupar vs Deportivo Cali — Primera A 2025

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Alianza Valledupar vs Deportivo Cali