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Deportivo Cali vs Alianza Valledupar — Primera A 2018

Deportivo Cali
Deportivo Cali
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Alianza Valledupar
Alianza Valledupar
10/2/2023Primera APrimera A · Clausura - 15Estadio Deportivo Cali

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 12+ matches

Deportivo Cali41%
×Draw32%
Alianza Valledupar27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Deportivo Cali
1.06
Alianza Valledupar
0.81

Deportivo Cali creates 31% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 12 away

creates per match

Deportivo Cali
1.08
Alianza Valledupar
0.68

allows per match

Deportivo Cali
0.95
Alianza Valledupar
1.04

finishing

Deportivo Cali-0.23scores less
Alianza Valledupar+0.07on par

Total goals

71%Under
  • Under71
  • Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Cali ↓

Alianza Valledupar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–112%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
56%44%2.5
29%71%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Deportivo Cali or draw
73%
Deportivo Cali or Alianza Valledupar
68%
Draw or Alianza Valledupar
59%

Winning margin

Deportivo Cali wins by 2+
16%
Alianza Valledupar wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Deportivo Cali 1+ goals
65%
Deportivo Cali 2+ goals
29%
Deportivo Cali 3+ goals
9%
Alianza Valledupar 1+ goals
56%
Alianza Valledupar 2+ goals
19%
Alianza Valledupar 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Cali (draw refunded)
60%
Alianza Valledupar (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Cali at home — creates 1.08, concedes 0.95 · 13 matches

Alianza Valledupar away — creates 0.68, concedes 1.04 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Cali attack 1.08 + Alianza Valledupar defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.06

Alianza Valledupar attack 0.68 + Deportivo Cali defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Deportivo Cali scores more
41%
level
32%
Alianza Valledupar scores more
27%

Deportivo Cali at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Deportivo Cali will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera A: Deportivo Cali 1–0 Alianza Valledupar

Deportivo Cali beat Alianza Valledupar 1-0 in Primera A on October 2, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Deportivo Cali in Palmira.