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Deportivo Caaguazu vs Club River Plate — Division Intermedia 2018

Deportivo Caaguazu
Deportivo Caaguazu
FT
2 – 1
Club River Plate
Club River Plate
4/15/2018Division IntermediaDivision Intermedia · Round 5Estadio Municipal Federico Llamosas (Caaguazú)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Deportivo Caaguazu40%
×Draw29%
Club River Plate32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Deportivo Caaguazu
1.20
Club River Plate
1.04

Deportivo Caaguazu creates 15% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 48 away

creates per match

Deportivo Caaguazu
1.17
Club River Plate
1.02

allows per match

Deportivo Caaguazu
1.07
Club River Plate
1.23

finishing

Deportivo Caaguazu+0.00on par
Club River Plate+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Caaguazu ↓

Club River Plate →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Deportivo Caaguazu or draw
68%
Deportivo Caaguazu or Club River Plate
71%
Draw or Club River Plate
60%

Winning margin

Deportivo Caaguazu wins by 2+
17%
Club River Plate wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Deportivo Caaguazu 1+ goals
70%
Deportivo Caaguazu 2+ goals
34%
Deportivo Caaguazu 3+ goals
12%
Club River Plate 1+ goals
65%
Club River Plate 2+ goals
28%
Club River Plate 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Caaguazu (draw refunded)
56%
Club River Plate (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Caaguazu at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.07 · 30 matches

Club River Plate away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.23 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Caaguazu attack 1.17 + Club River Plate defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.20

Club River Plate attack 1.02 + Deportivo Caaguazu defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Deportivo Caaguazu scores more
40%
level
29%
Club River Plate scores more
32%

Deportivo Caaguazu at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Deportivo Caaguazu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Division Intermedia: Deportivo Caaguazu 2–1 Club River Plate

Deportivo Caaguazu beat Club River Plate 2-1 in Division Intermedia on April 15, 2018.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Federico Llamosas (Caaguazú).