Club River Plate 1–0 Deportivo Caaguazu

Club River Plate

FT

1 – 0

Deportivo Caaguazu

7/21/2018

Division Intermedia · Round 20Estadio River Plate (Asunción)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Club River Plate53%

×Draw25%

Deportivo Caaguazu22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Club River PlateExpected goals in this matchDeportivo Caaguazu

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.58

0.92

Club River Plate

1.58

Deportivo Caaguazu

0.92

Club River Plate creates 72% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 30 away

1.24

creates per match

0.73

1.11

allows per match

1.93

creates per match

Club River Plate

1.24

Deportivo Caaguazu

0.73

allows per match

Club River Plate

1.11

Deportivo Caaguazu

1.93

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Club River Plate+0.00on par

Deportivo Caaguazu+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Club River Plate ↓

Deportivo Caaguazu →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–112%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Club River Plate or draw

78%

Club River Plate or Deportivo Caaguazu

75%

Draw or Deportivo Caaguazu

47%

Winning margin

Club River Plate wins by 2+

28%

Deportivo Caaguazu wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Club River Plate 1+ goals

79%

Club River Plate 2+ goals

47%

Club River Plate 3+ goals

21%

Deportivo Caaguazu 1+ goals

60%

Deportivo Caaguazu 2+ goals

23%

Deportivo Caaguazu 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Club River Plate (draw refunded)

71%

Deportivo Caaguazu (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Club River Plate at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.11 · 46 matches

Deportivo Caaguazu away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.93 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Club River Plate attack 1.24 + Deportivo Caaguazu defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.58

Deportivo Caaguazu attack 0.73 + Club River Plate defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Club River Plate scores more

53%

level

25%

Deportivo Caaguazu scores more

22%

Club River Plate at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Club River Plate will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff