Deportivo Caaguazu 0–0 3 de Febrero: Result & Stats

Deportivo Caaguazu

FT

0 – 0

3 de Febrero

4/28/2019

Division Intermedia · Round 1Estadio Municipal Federico Llamosas (Caaguazú)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Deportivo Caaguazu41%

×Draw28%

3 de Febrero31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Deportivo CaaguazuExpected goals in this match3 de Febrero

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

1.05

Deportivo Caaguazu

1.25

3 de Febrero

1.05

Deportivo Caaguazu creates 19% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 78 away

1.17

creates per match

1.03

1.07

allows per match

1.32

creates per match

Deportivo Caaguazu

1.17

3 de Febrero

1.03

allows per match

Deportivo Caaguazu

1.07

3 de Febrero

1.32

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Deportivo Caaguazu+0.00on par

3 de Febrero+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Caaguazu ↓

3 de Febrero →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Deportivo Caaguazu or draw

69%

Deportivo Caaguazu or 3 de Febrero

72%

Draw or 3 de Febrero

59%

Winning margin

Deportivo Caaguazu wins by 2+

18%

3 de Febrero wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Deportivo Caaguazu 1+ goals

71%

Deportivo Caaguazu 2+ goals

36%

Deportivo Caaguazu 3+ goals

13%

3 de Febrero 1+ goals

65%

3 de Febrero 2+ goals

28%

3 de Febrero 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Caaguazu (draw refunded)

57%

3 de Febrero (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Caaguazu at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.07 · 30 matches

3 de Febrero away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.32 · 78 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Caaguazu attack 1.17 + 3 de Febrero defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.25

3 de Febrero attack 1.03 + Deportivo Caaguazu defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Deportivo Caaguazu scores more

41%

level

28%

3 de Febrero scores more

31%

Deportivo Caaguazu at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Deportivo Caaguazu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff