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3 de Febrero vs Deportivo Caaguazu — Division Intermedia 2018

3 de Febrero
3 de Febrero
FT
1 – 0
Deportivo Caaguazu
Deportivo Caaguazu
8/11/2019Division IntermediaDivision Intermedia · Round 16Estadio Antonio Aranda (Ciudad del Este)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

3 de Febrero52%
×Draw25%
Deportivo Caaguazu23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3 de Febrero
1.60
Deportivo Caaguazu
0.99

3 de Febrero creates 62% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 30 away

creates per match

3 de Febrero
1.28
Deportivo Caaguazu
0.73

allows per match

3 de Febrero
1.26
Deportivo Caaguazu
1.93

finishing

3 de Febrero+0.00on par
Deportivo Caaguazu+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

3 de Febrero ↓

Deportivo Caaguazu →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

3 de Febrero or draw
77%
3 de Febrero or Deportivo Caaguazu
75%
Draw or Deportivo Caaguazu
48%

Winning margin

3 de Febrero wins by 2+
27%
Deportivo Caaguazu wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

3 de Febrero 1+ goals
80%
3 de Febrero 2+ goals
47%
3 de Febrero 3+ goals
22%
Deportivo Caaguazu 1+ goals
63%
Deportivo Caaguazu 2+ goals
26%
Deportivo Caaguazu 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

3 de Febrero (draw refunded)
69%
Deportivo Caaguazu (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

3 de Febrero at home — creates 1.28, concedes 1.26 · 78 matches

Deportivo Caaguazu away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.93 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

3 de Febrero attack 1.28 + Deportivo Caaguazu defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.60

Deportivo Caaguazu attack 0.73 + 3 de Febrero defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

3 de Febrero scores more
52%
level
25%
Deportivo Caaguazu scores more
23%

3 de Febrero at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "3 de Febrero will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Division Intermedia: 3 de Febrero 1–0 Deportivo Caaguazu

3 de Febrero beat Deportivo Caaguazu 1-0 in Division Intermedia on August 11, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Antonio Aranda (Ciudad del Este).