Deportivo Binacional 2–2 Real Garcilaso

Deportivo Binacional

FT

2 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Real Garcilaso

D. Millán 53', 52' (pen)

D. Carando 34', 14'

9/9/2019

Primera División · Clausura - 6Estadio Guillermo Briceno Rosamedina

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

Deportivo Binacional52%

×Draw24%

Real Garcilaso24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Deportivo BinacionalExpected goals in this matchReal Garcilaso

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.70

1.07

Deportivo Binacional

1.70

Real Garcilaso

1.07

Deportivo Binacional creates 59% more chances

Season form · 115 home / 39 away

1.81

creates per match

0.97

1.17

allows per match

1.59

creates per match

Deportivo Binacional

1.81

Real Garcilaso

0.97

allows per match

Deportivo Binacional

1.17

Real Garcilaso

1.59

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Deportivo Binacional+0.00on par

Real Garcilaso+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Binacional ↓

Real Garcilaso →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Deportivo Binacional or draw

76%

Deportivo Binacional or Real Garcilaso

76%

Draw or Real Garcilaso

48%

Winning margin

Deportivo Binacional wins by 2+

28%

Real Garcilaso wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Deportivo Binacional 1+ goals

82%

Deportivo Binacional 2+ goals

51%

Deportivo Binacional 3+ goals

24%

Real Garcilaso 1+ goals

66%

Real Garcilaso 2+ goals

29%

Real Garcilaso 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Binacional (draw refunded)

69%

Real Garcilaso (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Binacional at home — creates 1.81, concedes 1.17 · 115 matches

Real Garcilaso away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.59 · 39 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Binacional attack 1.81 + Real Garcilaso defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.70

Real Garcilaso attack 0.97 + Deportivo Binacional defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Deportivo Binacional scores more

52%

level

24%

Real Garcilaso scores more

24%

Deportivo Binacional at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Deportivo Binacional will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

23

D. Carando

Real Garcilaso · F

8.3

Match Events

14'

D. Carando↳ A. Ramúa

19'

Donald Millán

21'

Pablo Miguez

34'

D. Carando↳ A. Lecaros

37'

Jean Pierre Archimbaud

44'

Daniel Ferreyra

45'

Andres Robles

46'

Minzun Quina

52'

D. MillánPenalty

53'

D. Millán↳ J. Reyes

65'

H. Zeta← D. Leudo

68'

P. Goyoneche← A. Lecaros

75'

Paulo Goyoneche

79'

H. Rengifo← D. Carando

81'

J. Collazos← A. Polar

83'

C. Souza← D. Ismodes

89'

Herve Kambou

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

DeportivoReal

Overview

68%Possession32%

38Total Shots10

6Corners0

11Fouls21

Shots

38Total Shots10

9On Target4

13Off Target5

16Blocked1

18Inside Box3

20Outside Box7

Passing

68%Possession32%

417Total Passes205

369Accurate Passes139

88%Pass Accuracy68%

Goalkeeping

2Saves6

Discipline

11Fouls21

2Yellow Cards6

1Offsides0